Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range amid resilient economic data. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—far exceeding expectations of 60,000—bolstering labor market strength with steady unemployment around 4.4%, reducing rate-cut urgency. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while January core PCE eased slightly to near 3%, keeping inflation above the 2% goal but stable. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks affirmed rates are in a "good place" despite energy shocks from the Iran conflict, signaling patience. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI and the April 28-29 FOMC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日No change 79%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 3.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$3,287,878 Vol.
$3,287,878 Vol.
2026/07/29
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
16%
No change
79%
25 bps increase
4%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 79%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 3.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$3,287,878 Vol.
$3,287,878 Vol.
2026/07/29
50+ bps decrease
$86,980 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$71,655 Vol.
16%
No change
$80,658 Vol.
79%
25 bps increase
$2,929,671 Vol.
4%
50+ bps increase
$118,922 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range amid resilient economic data. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—far exceeding expectations of 60,000—bolstering labor market strength with steady unemployment around 4.4%, reducing rate-cut urgency. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while January core PCE eased slightly to near 3%, keeping inflation above the 2% goal but stable. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks affirmed rates are in a "good place" despite energy shocks from the Iran conflict, signaling patience. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI and the April 28-29 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$3,287,878終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range amid resilient economic data. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—far exceeding expectations of 60,000—bolstering labor market strength with steady unemployment around 4.4%, reducing rate-cut urgency. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while January core PCE eased slightly to near 3%, keeping inflation above the 2% goal but stable. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks affirmed rates are in a "good place" despite energy shocks from the Iran conflict, signaling patience. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI and the April 28-29 FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$3,287,878終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range amid resilient economic data. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—far exceeding expectations of 60,000—bolstering labor market strength with steady unemployment around 4.4%, reducing rate-cut urgency. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, while January core PCE eased slightly to near 3%, keeping inflation above the 2% goal but stable. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks affirmed rates are in a "good place" despite energy shocks from the Iran conflict, signaling patience. Key catalysts ahead include April 10 CPI and the April 28-29 FOMC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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