Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease by the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) at its June 18-19 Copom meeting, propelled by April IPCA inflation easing to 3.69% year-over-year—comfortably within the 1.5-4.5% target band—and anchored long-term inflation expectations. This disinflation momentum overshadows Brazil's robust Q1 GDP expansion of 2.9%, fueling bets on a continued 25 basis-point cut following May's reduction to 10.5%. Hawkish Copom minutes caution against aggressive easing amid sticky core inflation and strong activity, supporting 26% odds for no change, while a hike at 17.5% hinges on potential May CPI surprises due June 11 or currency volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Decrease 75%
No Change 26%
Increase 18%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
Increase
18%
No Change
26%
Decrease
75%
Decrease 75%
No Change 26%
Increase 18%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
Increase
$0 Vol.
18%
No Change
$15 Vol.
26%
Decrease
$0 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
音量
$15終了日
Jun 16, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$15終了日
Jun 16, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease by the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) at its June 18-19 Copom meeting, propelled by April IPCA inflation easing to 3.69% year-over-year—comfortably within the 1.5-4.5% target band—and anchored long-term inflation expectations. This disinflation momentum overshadows Brazil's robust Q1 GDP expansion of 2.9%, fueling bets on a continued 25 basis-point cut following May's reduction to 10.5%. Hawkish Copom minutes caution against aggressive easing amid sticky core inflation and strong activity, supporting 26% odds for no change, while a hike at 17.5% hinges on potential May CPI surprises due June 11 or currency volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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