Recent polls from Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel in late March and early April position Ciro Gomes as the first-round frontrunner against incumbent Elmano de Freitas, driving trader consensus to price Ciro at 49.5% implied probability in the October 4 election, with potential runoff on October 25. Ciro's edge stems from his prior governorship, strong voter recall, and PSDB affiliation amid alliance talks, including with Capitão Wagner's federation, while Elmano trails at 28.5% despite solid approval ratings. Distant odds for Wagner (4%), Roberto Cláudio (2.1%), Eduardo Girão (1.9%), and Camilo Santana (1.5%) match their low survey support. A new poll this week, testing presidential scenarios for Ciro, may influence sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 50%
Elmano de Freitas 28%
Capitão Wagner 4.7%
Camilo Santana 1.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Ciro Gomes
50%
Elmano de Freitas
28%
Capitão Wagner
13%
Camilo Santana
2%
Eduardo Girão
1%
Roberto Cláudio
1%
Ciro Gomes 50%
Elmano de Freitas 28%
Capitão Wagner 4.7%
Camilo Santana 1.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ott 2026
Ciro Gomes
$3,273 Vol.
50%
Elmano de Freitas
$511 Vol.
28%
Capitão Wagner
$835 Vol.
13%
Camilo Santana
$260 Vol.
2%
Eduardo Girão
$388 Vol.
1%
Roberto Cláudio
$388 Vol.
1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel in late March and early April position Ciro Gomes as the first-round frontrunner against incumbent Elmano de Freitas, driving trader consensus to price Ciro at 49.5% implied probability in the October 4 election, with potential runoff on October 25. Ciro's edge stems from his prior governorship, strong voter recall, and PSDB affiliation amid alliance talks, including with Capitão Wagner's federation, while Elmano trails at 28.5% despite solid approval ratings. Distant odds for Wagner (4%), Roberto Cláudio (2.1%), Eduardo Girão (1.9%), and Camilo Santana (1.5%) match their low survey support. A new poll this week, testing presidential scenarios for Ciro, may influence sentiment.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$5,655Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel in late March and early April position Ciro Gomes as the first-round frontrunner against incumbent Elmano de Freitas, driving trader consensus to price Ciro at 49.5% implied probability in the October 4 election, with potential runoff on October 25. Ciro's edge stems from his prior governorship, strong voter recall, and PSDB affiliation amid alliance talks, including with Capitão Wagner's federation, while Elmano trails at 28.5% despite solid approval ratings. Distant odds for Wagner (4%), Roberto Cláudio (2.1%), Eduardo Girão (1.9%), and Camilo Santana (1.5%) match their low survey support. A new poll this week, testing presidential scenarios for Ciro, may influence sentiment.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,655Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel in late March and early April position Ciro Gomes as the first-round frontrunner against incumbent Elmano de Freitas, driving trader consensus to price Ciro at 49.5% implied probability in the October 4 election, with potential runoff on October 25. Ciro's edge stems from his prior governorship, strong voter recall, and PSDB affiliation amid alliance talks, including with Capitão Wagner's federation, while Elmano trails at 28.5% despite solid approval ratings. Distant odds for Wagner (4%), Roberto Cláudio (2.1%), Eduardo Girão (1.9%), and Camilo Santana (1.5%) match their low survey support. A new poll this week, testing presidential scenarios for Ciro, may influence sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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