Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 36.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's leadership in the CDU-SPD grand coalition and national momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led federal government. Late April polls from Infratest dimap (April 23-27) show CDU leading at 19% amid a fragmented field—Grüne, Die Linke, and AfD clustered at 18%, SPD at 14%—reflecting SPD's ongoing decline since the 2023 vote, while secondary parties gain marginally. Markets price CDU's plurality edge higher than raw polling amid historical incumbent advantages in proportional representation systems, though coalition negotiations will shape the next government; no majority projected for current black-red pairing. Divergence from polls highlights trader optimism on CDU turnout in this super-election year.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 36.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's leadership in the CDU-SPD grand coalition and national momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led federal government. Late April polls from Infratest dimap (April 23-27) show CDU leading at 19% amid a fragmented field—Grüne, Die Linke, and AfD clustered at 18%, SPD at 14%—reflecting SPD's ongoing decline since the 2023 vote, while secondary parties gain marginally. Markets price CDU's plurality edge higher than raw polling amid historical incumbent advantages in proportional representation systems, though coalition negotiations will shape the next government; no majority projected for current black-red pairing. Divergence from polls highlights trader optimism on CDU turnout in this super-election year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 6 2026
Latest polls show SPD at around 14-16% in Berlin, still behind CDU and other parties, with no clear path to winning the most seats
SPD dips to 9%3%
Continued polling data confirmed SPD's weak position, keeping market
May 4 2026
Latest INSA poll confirms AfD lead nationally, CDU second, Grüne steady at 13%
Grüne rises to 20%3%
Consistent polling data showing Grüne holding steady near 13% nationally helped sustain a gradual
May 3 2026
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and
BSW dips to 0%1%
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and loss of confidence among members, wiping out the small rally and sending the
May 1 2026
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
AfD dips to 19%3%
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
Apr 28 2026
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
AfD jumps to 22%6%
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
Apr 28 2026
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's governing role and causing a peak in market
CDU drops to 59%13%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election aftermath and mayoral approval
Apr 27 2026
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU dominance in city government
SPD rises to 9%2%
While CDU's confirmation as mayor solidified their control, SPD's slight
Apr 25 2026
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the
BSW rises to 1%1%
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the market as the party tried to broaden its appeal, but the effect was short‑lived.
Apr 25 2026
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
AfD rises to 19%3%
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
Apr 24 2026
INSA national poll shows Grüne at 13%, trailing CDU and AfD but stable
Grüne rises to 18%4%
Stable polling for Grüne nationally, despite trailing, supported a modest
Apr 18 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, SPD, Linke, and AfD nearly tied at 16% each
Grüne rises to 15%4%
The close polling race in Berlin raised hopes for Grüne’s potential gains, reflected in a
Mar 30 2026
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
AfD drops to 8%5%
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
Mar 28 2026
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
AfD rises to 13%2%
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 23%, reinforcing CDU's frontrunner status and supporting market
CDU jumps to 59%5%
Source: Civey Berlin poll March 26, 2026
Mar 8 2026
CDU leads in Baden-Württemberg state election polls, signaling potential gains in 2026 super election year and improving CDU outlook in Berlin market
CDU rises to 60%3%
Source: Flint Global analysis on 2026 elections
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
AfD rises to 15%4%
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
Mar 1 2026
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin, with CDU leader Kai Wegner favored for mayoral position
SPD dips to 6%1%
The coalition talks suggested SPD would remain junior partner, limiting its chances to lead, reflected in stable but low market
Feb 27 2026
Final results of 2023 repeat Berlin state election published, confirming CDU as largest party and SPD-CDU grand coalition talks begin, boosting CDU prospects
CDU jumps to 63%6%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election results and coalition talks
Feb 27 2026
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
AfD rises to 11%4%
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll confirms CDU as frontrunner in Berlin with 22%, stabilizing market confidence after earlier losses
CDU jumps to 58%8%
Source: Civey Berlin poll January 23, 2026
Jan 15 2026
SPD suffers historic low results in recent state elections, including Berlin and Rhineland-Palatinate, fueling concerns about party's electoral prospects
SPD dips to 6%4%
These defeats underscored SPD's declining voter base and contributed to further market
Jan 15 2026
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election at 20%, with AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered around 16%
Grüne jumps to 14%10%
A poll indicating a tight race among four parties including Grüne boosted market optimism for Greens, causing a
Jan 10 2026
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was
BSW dips to 0%1%
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was unlikely to clear the 5 % hurdle and driving the
Jan 7 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD surpassing CDU for the first time, raising concerns about CDU's position and causing a sharp drop in CDU's market
CDU drops to 50%13%
Source: GMS poll December 23, 2025 - January 5, 2026, AfD leads CDU nationally
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
AfD rises to 8%2%
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
Dec 4 2025
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
CDU jumps to 58%8%
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
Dec 4 2025
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
Dec 3 2025
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
Linke jumps to 28%6%
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
Dec 2 2025
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was
BSW plunges to 1%49%
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was approved at a Berlin‑Lichtenberg party congress, signalling a serious entry into the race and prompting an immediate market correction as traders reassessed its realistic chances.
Dec 2 2025
Berlin repeat state election results confirm CDU as clear winner with 28%, SPD and Grüne tied at 18.4%
Grüne plunges to 20%30%
The 2023 repeat election results showed CDU surging to first place, while Grüne tied with SPD at 18.4%, signaling a challenging environment for Greens to lead in 2026 and triggering a sharp
Dec 2 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 20.3%, SPD trailing at 15.2%, signaling a loss of majority for the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition
SPD plunges to 9%41%
The significant polling gap indicated SPD's weakening position, driving down market confidence in SPD winning the most seats.
Dec 1 2025
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
Linke plunges to 22%28%
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
Oct 11 2025
AfD selects Kristin Brinker as top candidate for Berlin state election, emphasizing stricter migration controls
Grüne dips to 2%2%
AfD’s consolidation around a strong candidate increased competition on the right, pressuring Grüne’s prospects and market
Sep 1 2025
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for the 2026 Berlin state election, focusing on housing and social services to regain voter support
SPD plunges to 12%38%
This announcement marked the start of SPD's campaign efforts but came amid already declining public support, reflected in the sharp
Sep 1 2025
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for Berlin election, emphasizing housing and social services
Grüne drops to 4%10%
SPD’s strong candidate announcement and campaign focus likely drew attention away from Grüne, contributing to a dip in their market
May 1 2025
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Linke jumps to 25%12%
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Apr 9 2025
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Linke rises to 13%3%
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Apr 2 2025
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Linke dips to 10%1%
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Mar 9 2025
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Linke drops to 11%8%
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Feb 24 2025
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Linke jumps to 38%10%
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Feb 13 2025
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Linke drops to 19%11%
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Feb 8 2025
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Linke drops to 30%6%
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Jan 30 2025
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and
Linke dips to 36%2%
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and pushing the market to a new high
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 36.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's leadership in the CDU-SPD grand coalition and national momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led federal government. Late April polls from Infratest dimap (April 23-27) show CDU leading at 19% amid a fragmented field—Grüne, Die Linke, and AfD clustered at 18%, SPD at 14%—reflecting SPD's ongoing decline since the 2023 vote, while secondary parties gain marginally. Markets price CDU's plurality edge higher than raw polling amid historical incumbent advantages in proportional representation systems, though coalition negotiations will shape the next government; no majority projected for current black-red pairing. Divergence from polls highlights trader optimism on CDU turnout in this super-election year.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 36.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's leadership in the CDU-SPD grand coalition and national momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led federal government. Late April polls from Infratest dimap (April 23-27) show CDU leading at 19% amid a fragmented field—Grüne, Die Linke, and AfD clustered at 18%, SPD at 14%—reflecting SPD's ongoing decline since the 2023 vote, while secondary parties gain marginally. Markets price CDU's plurality edge higher than raw polling amid historical incumbent advantages in proportional representation systems, though coalition negotiations will shape the next government; no majority projected for current black-red pairing. Divergence from polls highlights trader optimism on CDU turnout in this super-election year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 6 2026
Latest polls show SPD at around 14-16% in Berlin, still behind CDU and other parties, with no clear path to winning the most seats
SPD dips to 9%3%
Continued polling data confirmed SPD's weak position, keeping market
May 4 2026
Latest INSA poll confirms AfD lead nationally, CDU second, Grüne steady at 13%
Grüne rises to 20%3%
Consistent polling data showing Grüne holding steady near 13% nationally helped sustain a gradual
May 3 2026
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and
BSW dips to 0%1%
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and loss of confidence among members, wiping out the small rally and sending the
May 1 2026
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
AfD dips to 19%3%
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
Apr 28 2026
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
AfD jumps to 22%6%
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
Apr 28 2026
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's governing role and causing a peak in market
CDU drops to 59%13%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election aftermath and mayoral approval
Apr 27 2026
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU dominance in city government
SPD rises to 9%2%
While CDU's confirmation as mayor solidified their control, SPD's slight
Apr 25 2026
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the
BSW rises to 1%1%
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the market as the party tried to broaden its appeal, but the effect was short‑lived.
Apr 25 2026
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
AfD rises to 19%3%
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
Apr 24 2026
INSA national poll shows Grüne at 13%, trailing CDU and AfD but stable
Grüne rises to 18%4%
Stable polling for Grüne nationally, despite trailing, supported a modest
Apr 18 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, SPD, Linke, and AfD nearly tied at 16% each
Grüne rises to 15%4%
The close polling race in Berlin raised hopes for Grüne’s potential gains, reflected in a
Mar 30 2026
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
AfD drops to 8%5%
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
Mar 28 2026
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
AfD rises to 13%2%
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 23%, reinforcing CDU's frontrunner status and supporting market
CDU jumps to 59%5%
Source: Civey Berlin poll March 26, 2026
Mar 8 2026
CDU leads in Baden-Württemberg state election polls, signaling potential gains in 2026 super election year and improving CDU outlook in Berlin market
CDU rises to 60%3%
Source: Flint Global analysis on 2026 elections
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
AfD rises to 15%4%
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
Mar 1 2026
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin, with CDU leader Kai Wegner favored for mayoral position
SPD dips to 6%1%
The coalition talks suggested SPD would remain junior partner, limiting its chances to lead, reflected in stable but low market
Feb 27 2026
Final results of 2023 repeat Berlin state election published, confirming CDU as largest party and SPD-CDU grand coalition talks begin, boosting CDU prospects
CDU jumps to 63%6%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election results and coalition talks
Feb 27 2026
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
AfD rises to 11%4%
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll confirms CDU as frontrunner in Berlin with 22%, stabilizing market confidence after earlier losses
CDU jumps to 58%8%
Source: Civey Berlin poll January 23, 2026
Jan 15 2026
SPD suffers historic low results in recent state elections, including Berlin and Rhineland-Palatinate, fueling concerns about party's electoral prospects
SPD dips to 6%4%
These defeats underscored SPD's declining voter base and contributed to further market
Jan 15 2026
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election at 20%, with AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered around 16%
Grüne jumps to 14%10%
A poll indicating a tight race among four parties including Grüne boosted market optimism for Greens, causing a
Jan 10 2026
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was
BSW dips to 0%1%
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was unlikely to clear the 5 % hurdle and driving the
Jan 7 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD surpassing CDU for the first time, raising concerns about CDU's position and causing a sharp drop in CDU's market
CDU drops to 50%13%
Source: GMS poll December 23, 2025 - January 5, 2026, AfD leads CDU nationally
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
AfD rises to 8%2%
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
Dec 4 2025
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
CDU jumps to 58%8%
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
Dec 4 2025
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
Dec 3 2025
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
Linke jumps to 28%6%
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
Dec 2 2025
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was
BSW plunges to 1%49%
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was approved at a Berlin‑Lichtenberg party congress, signalling a serious entry into the race and prompting an immediate market correction as traders reassessed its realistic chances.
Dec 2 2025
Berlin repeat state election results confirm CDU as clear winner with 28%, SPD and Grüne tied at 18.4%
Grüne plunges to 20%30%
The 2023 repeat election results showed CDU surging to first place, while Grüne tied with SPD at 18.4%, signaling a challenging environment for Greens to lead in 2026 and triggering a sharp
Dec 2 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 20.3%, SPD trailing at 15.2%, signaling a loss of majority for the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition
SPD plunges to 9%41%
The significant polling gap indicated SPD's weakening position, driving down market confidence in SPD winning the most seats.
Dec 1 2025
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
Linke plunges to 22%28%
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
Oct 11 2025
AfD selects Kristin Brinker as top candidate for Berlin state election, emphasizing stricter migration controls
Grüne dips to 2%2%
AfD’s consolidation around a strong candidate increased competition on the right, pressuring Grüne’s prospects and market
Sep 1 2025
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for the 2026 Berlin state election, focusing on housing and social services to regain voter support
SPD plunges to 12%38%
This announcement marked the start of SPD's campaign efforts but came amid already declining public support, reflected in the sharp
Sep 1 2025
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for Berlin election, emphasizing housing and social services
Grüne drops to 4%10%
SPD’s strong candidate announcement and campaign focus likely drew attention away from Grüne, contributing to a dip in their market
May 1 2025
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Linke jumps to 25%12%
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Apr 9 2025
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Linke rises to 13%3%
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Apr 2 2025
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Linke dips to 10%1%
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Mar 9 2025
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Linke drops to 11%8%
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Feb 24 2025
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Linke jumps to 38%10%
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Feb 13 2025
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Linke drops to 19%11%
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Feb 8 2025
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Linke drops to 30%6%
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Jan 30 2025
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and
Linke dips to 36%2%
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and pushing the market to a new high
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Domande frequenti
"Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 8 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "CDU" a 37%, seguito da "Verdi" a 20%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 37¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 37% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" ha generato $2.6 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Dec 2, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino", esplora i 8 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" è "CDU" a 37%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 37% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Verdi" a 20%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $2.6 million scambiati su "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 37¢ per "CDU" nel mercato "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 37% che "CDU" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 37¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 63¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" è programmato per la risoluzione il o intorno al Sep 20, 2026. Questo significa che il trading rimarrà aperto e le quote continueranno a cambiare man mano che emergono nuove informazioni fino a quella data. La tempistica esatta di risoluzione dipende da quando il risultato ufficiale diventa disponibile, come indicato nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.
Il mercato "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino" ha una discussione in crescita di 8 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "Vincitore delle elezioni statali di Berlino". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti