Trader consensus favors CDU at 36.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's leadership in the CDU-SPD grand coalition and national momentum from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-led federal government. Late April polls from Infratest dimap (April 23-27) show CDU leading at 19% amid a fragmented field—Grüne, Die Linke, and AfD clustered at 18%, SPD at 14%—reflecting SPD's ongoing decline since the 2023 vote, while secondary parties gain marginally. Markets price CDU's plurality edge higher than raw polling amid historical incumbent advantages in proportional representation systems, though coalition negotiations will shape the next government; no majority projected for current black-red pairing. Divergence from polls highlights trader optimism on CDU turnout in this super-election year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLatest polls show SPD at around 14-16% in Berlin, still behind CDU and other parties, with no clear path to winning the most seats
SPD dips to 9%3%
Continued polling data confirmed SPD's weak position, keeping market
Latest INSA poll confirms AfD lead nationally, CDU second, Grüne steady at 13%
Grüne rises to 20%3%
Consistent polling data showing Grüne holding steady near 13% nationally helped sustain a gradual
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and
BSW dips to 0%1%
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and loss of confidence among members, wiping out the small rally and sending the
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
AfD dips to 19%3%
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
AfD jumps to 22%6%
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's governing role and causing a peak in market
CDU drops to 59%13%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election aftermath and mayoral approval
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU dominance in city government
SPD rises to 9%2%
While CDU's confirmation as mayor solidified their control, SPD's slight
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the
BSW rises to 1%1%
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the market as the party tried to broaden its appeal, but the effect was short‑lived.
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
AfD rises to 19%3%
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
INSA national poll shows Grüne at 13%, trailing CDU and AfD but stable
Grüne rises to 18%4%
Stable polling for Grüne nationally, despite trailing, supported a modest
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, SPD, Linke, and AfD nearly tied at 16% each
Grüne rises to 15%4%
The close polling race in Berlin raised hopes for Grüne’s potential gains, reflected in a
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
AfD drops to 8%5%
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
AfD rises to 13%2%
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
Civey poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 23%, reinforcing CDU's frontrunner status and supporting market
CDU jumps to 59%5%
Source: Civey Berlin poll March 26, 2026
CDU leads in Baden-Württemberg state election polls, signaling potential gains in 2026 super election year and improving CDU outlook in Berlin market
CDU rises to 60%3%
Source: Flint Global analysis on 2026 elections
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
AfD rises to 15%4%
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin, with CDU leader Kai Wegner favored for mayoral position
SPD dips to 6%1%
The coalition talks suggested SPD would remain junior partner, limiting its chances to lead, reflected in stable but low market
Final results of 2023 repeat Berlin state election published, confirming CDU as largest party and SPD-CDU grand coalition talks begin, boosting CDU prospects
CDU jumps to 63%6%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election results and coalition talks
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
AfD rises to 11%4%
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
Civey poll confirms CDU as frontrunner in Berlin with 22%, stabilizing market confidence after earlier losses
CDU jumps to 58%8%
Source: Civey Berlin poll January 23, 2026
SPD suffers historic low results in recent state elections, including Berlin and Rhineland-Palatinate, fueling concerns about party's electoral prospects
SPD dips to 6%4%
These defeats underscored SPD's declining voter base and contributed to further market
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election at 20%, with AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered around 16%
Grüne jumps to 14%10%
A poll indicating a tight race among four parties including Grüne boosted market optimism for Greens, causing a
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was
BSW dips to 0%1%
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was unlikely to clear the 5 % hurdle and driving the
Nationwide poll shows AfD surpassing CDU for the first time, raising concerns about CDU's position and causing a sharp drop in CDU's market
CDU drops to 50%13%
Source: GMS poll December 23, 2025 - January 5, 2026, AfD leads CDU nationally
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
AfD rises to 8%2%
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
CDU jumps to 58%8%
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
Linke jumps to 28%6%
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was
BSW plunges to 1%49%
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was approved at a Berlin‑Lichtenberg party congress, signalling a serious entry into the race and prompting an immediate market correction as traders reassessed its realistic chances.
Berlin repeat state election results confirm CDU as clear winner with 28%, SPD and Grüne tied at 18.4%
Grüne plunges to 20%30%
The 2023 repeat election results showed CDU surging to first place, while Grüne tied with SPD at 18.4%, signaling a challenging environment for Greens to lead in 2026 and triggering a sharp
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 20.3%, SPD trailing at 15.2%, signaling a loss of majority for the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition
SPD plunges to 9%41%
The significant polling gap indicated SPD's weakening position, driving down market confidence in SPD winning the most seats.
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
Linke plunges to 22%28%
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
AfD selects Kristin Brinker as top candidate for Berlin state election, emphasizing stricter migration controls
Grüne dips to 2%2%
AfD’s consolidation around a strong candidate increased competition on the right, pressuring Grüne’s prospects and market
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for the 2026 Berlin state election, focusing on housing and social services to regain voter support
SPD plunges to 12%38%
This announcement marked the start of SPD's campaign efforts but came amid already declining public support, reflected in the sharp
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for Berlin election, emphasizing housing and social services
Grüne drops to 4%10%
SPD’s strong candidate announcement and campaign focus likely drew attention away from Grüne, contributing to a dip in their market
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Linke jumps to 25%12%
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Linke rises to 13%3%
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Linke dips to 10%1%
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Linke drops to 11%8%
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Linke jumps to 38%10%
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Linke drops to 19%11%
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Linke drops to 30%6%
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and
Linke dips to 36%2%
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and pushing the market to a new high
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