Restore Britain candidate Marlon West secured 46,289 first-preference votes (8.7 percent) in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, falling short of the 10 percent threshold amid a field that included Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Reform UK, and independent contenders. Official results published immediately after polls closed reflected strong Labour consolidation around Bev Craig and limited vote share for smaller parties on a turnout near 25 percent. Traders assign near-certain probability to “No” because the count is complete and verified by local returning officers, with no significant outstanding ballots or procedural challenges reported. Late adjustments remain theoretically possible only through an unusually large-scale recount or successful legal contest, both of which lack precedent or supporting evidence in this contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
<1% probabilità
$7,445 Vol.
$7,445 Vol.
30 lug 2026
Sì
<1% probabilità
$7,445 Vol.
$7,445 Vol.
30 lug 2026
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Restore Britain candidate Marlon West secured 46,289 first-preference votes (8.7 percent) in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, falling short of the 10 percent threshold amid a field that included Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Reform UK, and independent contenders. Official results published immediately after polls closed reflected strong Labour consolidation around Bev Craig and limited vote share for smaller parties on a turnout near 25 percent. Traders assign near-certain probability to “No” because the count is complete and verified by local returning officers, with no significant outstanding ballots or procedural challenges reported. Late adjustments remain theoretically possible only through an unusually large-scale recount or successful legal contest, both of which lack precedent or supporting evidence in this contest.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 14, 2026, 8:16 PM ET
Volume
$7,445Data di fine
30 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 14, 2026, 8:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Restore Britain candidate Marlon West secured 46,289 first-preference votes (8.7 percent) in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, falling short of the 10 percent threshold amid a field that included Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Reform UK, and independent contenders. Official results published immediately after polls closed reflected strong Labour consolidation around Bev Craig and limited vote share for smaller parties on a turnout near 25 percent. Traders assign near-certain probability to “No” because the count is complete and verified by local returning officers, with no significant outstanding ballots or procedural challenges reported. Late adjustments remain theoretically possible only through an unusually large-scale recount or successful legal contest, both of which lack precedent or supporting evidence in this contest.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$7,445Data di fine
30 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 14, 2026, 8:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Restore Britain candidate Marlon West secured 46,289 first-preference votes (8.7 percent) in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, falling short of the 10 percent threshold amid a field that included Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Reform UK, and independent contenders. Official results published immediately after polls closed reflected strong Labour consolidation around Bev Craig and limited vote share for smaller parties on a turnout near 25 percent. Traders assign near-certain probability to “No” because the count is complete and verified by local returning officers, with no significant outstanding ballots or procedural challenges reported. Late adjustments remain theoretically possible only through an unusually large-scale recount or successful legal contest, both of which lack precedent or supporting evidence in this contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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