Recent polling averages place Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party narrowly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud as the largest faction in the October 27 Knesset vote, with neither the pro-Netanyahu nor opposition Zionist bloc consistently reaching a 61-seat majority. Channel 12 and similar surveys from early October show Yashar at 21–23 seats and Likud at 20–22, while some Channel 14 results favor Likud; bloc totals remain fluid due to parties near the 3.25% threshold and coalition arithmetic. Traders assign Yashar the highest implied probability, reflecting its consistent lead in head-to-head polling and Netanyahu bloc shortfalls, though small shifts in turnout or surplus agreements could alter outcomes before election day.