No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 26%. Historical bolide records indicate such events from meter-scale impactors occur on roughly annual timescales, though catalogued NEOs show zero significant risk this year and recent fireballs, including those over Cleveland and Massachusetts, have remained well below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing surveys could still detect previously unknown small objects, but current orbital data and the absence of elevated activity sustain trader consensus toward resolution as “No.”