Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds over 157 mph—making landfall on the US mainland before 2027, anchored by Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast of below-normal Atlantic activity (13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors) amid emerging El Niño conditions expected by May-July, which historically reduce shear and storm formation. The 2025 season produced three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), yet none struck the US at peak intensity, reinforcing climatological rarity—only four such landfalls since 1851 per NOAA records, last being Michael in 2018. NOAA's late-May outlook and NHC advisories will refine probabilities as the June 1 season nears.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या कोई श्रेणी 5 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या कोई श्रेणी 5 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
$132,478 वॉल्यूम
$132,478 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$132,478 वॉल्यूम
$132,478 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds over 157 mph—making landfall on the US mainland before 2027, anchored by Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast of below-normal Atlantic activity (13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors) amid emerging El Niño conditions expected by May-July, which historically reduce shear and storm formation. The 2025 season produced three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), yet none struck the US at peak intensity, reinforcing climatological rarity—only four such landfalls since 1851 per NOAA records, last being Michael in 2018. NOAA's late-May outlook and NHC advisories will refine probabilities as the June 1 season nears.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$132,478समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds over 157 mph—making landfall on the US mainland before 2027, anchored by Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast of below-normal Atlantic activity (13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors) amid emerging El Niño conditions expected by May-July, which historically reduce shear and storm formation. The 2025 season produced three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), yet none struck the US at peak intensity, reinforcing climatological rarity—only four such landfalls since 1851 per NOAA records, last being Michael in 2018. NOAA's late-May outlook and NHC advisories will refine probabilities as the June 1 season nears.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
वॉल्यूम
$132,478समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds over 157 mph—making landfall on the US mainland before 2027, anchored by Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast of below-normal Atlantic activity (13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors) amid emerging El Niño conditions expected by May-July, which historically reduce shear and storm formation. The 2025 season produced three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), yet none struck the US at peak intensity, reinforcing climatological rarity—only four such landfalls since 1851 per NOAA records, last being Michael in 2018. NOAA's late-May outlook and NHC advisories will refine probabilities as the June 1 season nears.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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