Traders assign an 87.5% probability to no major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater in 2026 because near-Earth object monitoring programs, including NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ground-based surveys, have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year. Historical impact rates place events of this energy scale—roughly 10–30 meters in diameter—on the order of once per several decades to a century, with most producing airbursts rather than ground strikes. Recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2 in May, were tracked with zero impact risk, reinforcing the consensus. No new detections or orbital updates have altered this low baseline outlook, though continued refinement of asteroid catalogs could still surface unexpected objects before year-end.