Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 at 57.5% implied probability, with one at 35%, driven by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of zero qualifying events through mid-April despite 47 total eruptions worldwide—mostly low-VEI effusive or minor explosive activity. VEI ≥4 denotes eruptions ejecting over 0.1 cubic kilometers of dense-rock equivalent material, historically averaging 1–3 annually based on Holocene records from well-monitored volcanoes. Recent weekly reports highlight ash plumes from Shiveluch (up to 8 km) and Sakurajima, plus Kīlauea's episodic fountaining, but none meet VEI thresholds per USGS and GVP assessments. Ongoing seismic monitoring at sites like Hekla and Great Sitkin could shift odds with new unrest data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.7%
3 1.4%
$1,003,653 वॉल्यूम
$1,003,653 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
57%
1
35%
2
5%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
1%
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.7%
3 1.4%
$1,003,653 वॉल्यूम
$1,003,653 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
$448,021 वॉल्यूम
57%
1
$252,574 वॉल्यूम
35%
2
$23,550 वॉल्यूम
5%
3
$16,549 वॉल्यूम
1%
4
$17,476 वॉल्यूम
<1%
5+
$245,483 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 at 57.5% implied probability, with one at 35%, driven by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of zero qualifying events through mid-April despite 47 total eruptions worldwide—mostly low-VEI effusive or minor explosive activity. VEI ≥4 denotes eruptions ejecting over 0.1 cubic kilometers of dense-rock equivalent material, historically averaging 1–3 annually based on Holocene records from well-monitored volcanoes. Recent weekly reports highlight ash plumes from Shiveluch (up to 8 km) and Sakurajima, plus Kīlauea's episodic fountaining, but none meet VEI thresholds per USGS and GVP assessments. Ongoing seismic monitoring at sites like Hekla and Great Sitkin could shift odds with new unrest data.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,003,653समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 at 57.5% implied probability, with one at 35%, driven by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of zero qualifying events through mid-April despite 47 total eruptions worldwide—mostly low-VEI effusive or minor explosive activity. VEI ≥4 denotes eruptions ejecting over 0.1 cubic kilometers of dense-rock equivalent material, historically averaging 1–3 annually based on Holocene records from well-monitored volcanoes. Recent weekly reports highlight ash plumes from Shiveluch (up to 8 km) and Sakurajima, plus Kīlauea's episodic fountaining, but none meet VEI thresholds per USGS and GVP assessments. Ongoing seismic monitoring at sites like Hekla and Great Sitkin could shift odds with new unrest data.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$1,003,653समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026 at 57.5% implied probability, with one at 35%, driven by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of zero qualifying events through mid-April despite 47 total eruptions worldwide—mostly low-VEI effusive or minor explosive activity. VEI ≥4 denotes eruptions ejecting over 0.1 cubic kilometers of dense-rock equivalent material, historically averaging 1–3 annually based on Holocene records from well-monitored volcanoes. Recent weekly reports highlight ash plumes from Shiveluch (up to 8 km) and Sakurajima, plus Kīlauea's episodic fountaining, but none meet VEI thresholds per USGS and GVP assessments. Ongoing seismic monitoring at sites like Hekla and Great Sitkin could shift odds with new unrest data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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