Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "No" at 64.5% implied probability for any Category 4 or stronger hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by Colorado State University's April 9, 2026, outlook forecasting below-average 2026 Atlantic activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño, which increases wind shear and suppresses storm formation. The 2025 season saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015 despite three Category 5s elsewhere, reinforcing low recent threat levels. Historical data shows U.S. Category 4+ landfalls occur roughly every 2–3 years on average, but current sea surface temperatures and model consensus point to subdued intensification potential. NOAA's next seasonal updates in May and June 1 season start could shift odds as early tropical waves emerge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या कोई श्रेणी 4 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या कोई श्रेणी 4 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
$324,507 वॉल्यूम
$324,507 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$324,507 वॉल्यूम
$324,507 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "No" at 64.5% implied probability for any Category 4 or stronger hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by Colorado State University's April 9, 2026, outlook forecasting below-average 2026 Atlantic activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño, which increases wind shear and suppresses storm formation. The 2025 season saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015 despite three Category 5s elsewhere, reinforcing low recent threat levels. Historical data shows U.S. Category 4+ landfalls occur roughly every 2–3 years on average, but current sea surface temperatures and model consensus point to subdued intensification potential. NOAA's next seasonal updates in May and June 1 season start could shift odds as early tropical waves emerge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$324,507समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "No" at 64.5% implied probability for any Category 4 or stronger hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by Colorado State University's April 9, 2026, outlook forecasting below-average 2026 Atlantic activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño, which increases wind shear and suppresses storm formation. The 2025 season saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015 despite three Category 5s elsewhere, reinforcing low recent threat levels. Historical data shows U.S. Category 4+ landfalls occur roughly every 2–3 years on average, but current sea surface temperatures and model consensus point to subdued intensification potential. NOAA's next seasonal updates in May and June 1 season start could shift odds as early tropical waves emerge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
वॉल्यूम
$324,507समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "No" at 64.5% implied probability for any Category 4 or stronger hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by Colorado State University's April 9, 2026, outlook forecasting below-average 2026 Atlantic activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño, which increases wind shear and suppresses storm formation. The 2025 season saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015 despite three Category 5s elsewhere, reinforcing low recent threat levels. Historical data shows U.S. Category 4+ landfalls occur roughly every 2–3 years on average, but current sea surface temperatures and model consensus point to subdued intensification potential. NOAA's next seasonal updates in May and June 1 season start could shift odds as early tropical waves emerge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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