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Géopolitique·ChinaTalk·

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ChinaTalk

Un allié des États-Unis obtiendra-t-il une arme nucléaire en 2025 ?

Market icon
Géopolitique·ChinaTalk·

Asked by

ChinaTalk image

ChinaTalk

Un allié des États-Unis obtiendra-t-il une arme nucléaire en 2025 ?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Dec 31

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Dec 31

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$92,718 Vol.

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$92,718 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of March 10, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of March 10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Volume
$92,718
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Créé le
Mar 10, 2025, 1:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of March 10, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of March 10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of March 10, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of March 10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Volume
$92,718
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Créé le
Mar 10, 2025, 1:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of March 10, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of March 10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Un allié des États-Unis obtiendra-t-il une arme nucléaire en 2025 ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Un allié des États-Unis obtiendra-t-il une arme nucléaire en 2025 ?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Un allié des États-Unis obtiendra-t-il une arme nucléaire en 2025 ?" has generated $92.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Un allié des États-Unis obtiendra-t-il une arme nucléaire en 2025 ?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Un allié des États-Unis obtiendra-t-il une arme nucléaire en 2025 ?" is "Un allié des États-Unis obtiendra-t-il une arme nucléaire en 2025 ?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Un allié des États-Unis obtiendra-t-il une arme nucléaire en 2025 ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.