US and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, military production sites, and defense infrastructure since late February 2026, marking one month of open conflict as of March 28, with IDF operations like "Roaring Lion" nearing completion amid ongoing combined force targeting. In the past 48 hours, Iran retaliated with drone and missile strikes on US bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, injuring troops and damaging assets, while US reinforcements including 3,500 troops deployed to the region signal sustained pressure. UK, France, and Germany issued statements readiness for defensive actions against Iranian missile capabilities, and Saudi Arabia with UAE eye participation if their facilities are hit, though no direct strikes from them confirmed yet. Traders weigh de-escalation talks against escalation risks before the March 31 deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$10,837,569 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arabie saoudite
4%
Émirats arabes unis
3%
Qatar
2%
Bahreïn
2%
Jordanie
1%
Koweït
1%
Royaume-Uni
1%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
1%
Turquie
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Allemagne
<1%
Canada
<1%
$10,837,569 Vol.
Arabie saoudite
$2,206,893 Vol.
4%
Émirats arabes unis
$2,852,108 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$946,268 Vol.
2%
Bahreïn
$392,919 Vol.
2%
Jordanie
$189,690 Vol.
1%
Koweït
$211,655 Vol.
1%
Royaume-Uni
$948,390 Vol.
1%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
$473,065 Vol.
1%
Turquie
$481,797 Vol.
1%
France
$750,278 Vol.
1%
Oman
$132,073 Vol.
1%
Allemagne
$912,746 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$339,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, military production sites, and defense infrastructure since late February 2026, marking one month of open conflict as of March 28, with IDF operations like "Roaring Lion" nearing completion amid ongoing combined force targeting. In the past 48 hours, Iran retaliated with drone and missile strikes on US bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, injuring troops and damaging assets, while US reinforcements including 3,500 troops deployed to the region signal sustained pressure. UK, France, and Germany issued statements readiness for defensive actions against Iranian missile capabilities, and Saudi Arabia with UAE eye participation if their facilities are hit, though no direct strikes from them confirmed yet. Traders weigh de-escalation talks against escalation risks before the March 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,837,569Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, military production sites, and defense infrastructure since late February 2026, marking one month of open conflict as of March 28, with IDF operations like "Roaring Lion" nearing completion amid ongoing combined force targeting. In the past 48 hours, Iran retaliated with drone and missile strikes on US bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, injuring troops and damaging assets, while US reinforcements including 3,500 troops deployed to the region signal sustained pressure. UK, France, and Germany issued statements readiness for defensive actions against Iranian missile capabilities, and Saudi Arabia with UAE eye participation if their facilities are hit, though no direct strikes from them confirmed yet. Traders weigh de-escalation talks against escalation risks before the March 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,837,569Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, military production sites, and defense infrastructure since late February 2026, marking one month of open conflict as of March 28, with IDF operations like "Roaring Lion" nearing completion amid ongoing combined force targeting. In the past 48 hours, Iran retaliated with drone and missile strikes on US bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, injuring troops and damaging assets, while US reinforcements including 3,500 troops deployed to the region signal sustained pressure. UK, France, and Germany issued statements readiness for defensive actions against Iranian missile capabilities, and Saudi Arabia with UAE eye participation if their facilities are hit, though no direct strikes from them confirmed yet. Traders weigh de-escalation talks against escalation risks before the March 31 deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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