US and Israeli forces continue their air campaign against Iranian military, missile, nuclear, and defense industrial sites, with Israel launching intensified strikes—including on nuclear facilities near Tehran and Qom—as recently as March 27, driving trader assessments amid the March 31 deadline. The conflict erupted February 28 with joint Operation Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei and degrading Iran's capabilities, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliation against Israel, US bases, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. A US 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24 was rejected by Iran, which demands cessation of attacks; no other countries have conducted offensive actions against Iran, though allies host US operations and defend against strikes. With three days remaining, escalation signals from both sides, including Houthi threats, heighten uncertainty for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$10,257,396 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arabie saoudite
10%
Émirats arabes unis
7%
Qatar
4%
Bahreïn
3%
Koweït
2%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
2%
Royaume-Uni
1%
Jordanie
1%
Turquie
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Allemagne
<1%
Canada
<1%
$10,257,396 Vol.
Arabie saoudite
$2,065,820 Vol.
10%
Émirats arabes unis
$2,541,649 Vol.
7%
Qatar
$928,689 Vol.
4%
Bahreïn
$386,806 Vol.
3%
Koweït
$208,309 Vol.
2%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
$453,495 Vol.
2%
Royaume-Uni
$932,907 Vol.
1%
Jordanie
$184,755 Vol.
1%
Turquie
$470,051 Vol.
1%
France
$722,116 Vol.
1%
Oman
$128,149 Vol.
1%
Allemagne
$905,130 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$333,450 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue their air campaign against Iranian military, missile, nuclear, and defense industrial sites, with Israel launching intensified strikes—including on nuclear facilities near Tehran and Qom—as recently as March 27, driving trader assessments amid the March 31 deadline. The conflict erupted February 28 with joint Operation Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei and degrading Iran's capabilities, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliation against Israel, US bases, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. A US 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24 was rejected by Iran, which demands cessation of attacks; no other countries have conducted offensive actions against Iran, though allies host US operations and defend against strikes. With three days remaining, escalation signals from both sides, including Houthi threats, heighten uncertainty for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,257,396Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue their air campaign against Iranian military, missile, nuclear, and defense industrial sites, with Israel launching intensified strikes—including on nuclear facilities near Tehran and Qom—as recently as March 27, driving trader assessments amid the March 31 deadline. The conflict erupted February 28 with joint Operation Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei and degrading Iran's capabilities, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliation against Israel, US bases, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. A US 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24 was rejected by Iran, which demands cessation of attacks; no other countries have conducted offensive actions against Iran, though allies host US operations and defend against strikes. With three days remaining, escalation signals from both sides, including Houthi threats, heighten uncertainty for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,257,396Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces continue their air campaign against Iranian military, missile, nuclear, and defense industrial sites, with Israel launching intensified strikes—including on nuclear facilities near Tehran and Qom—as recently as March 27, driving trader assessments amid the March 31 deadline. The conflict erupted February 28 with joint Operation Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei and degrading Iran's capabilities, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliation against Israel, US bases, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. A US 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24 was rejected by Iran, which demands cessation of attacks; no other countries have conducted offensive actions against Iran, though allies host US operations and defend against strikes. With three days remaining, escalation signals from both sides, including Houthi threats, heighten uncertainty for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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