The United States and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, air defenses, and IRGC targets since launching the campaign on February 28, 2026, with intensified operations in the past week degrading Tehran's arms production. Iran's March 27 ballistic missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia—injuring at least 10 U.S. troops and damaging aircraft—prompted defensive intercepts by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, the latter of which executed limited strikes on March 4 after Iranian incursions. Stalled U.S. ceasefire proposals via mediators, rejected by Tehran, and Houthi escalation on March 28 underscore high risks of further military actions by allies before the March 31 deadline, shaping trader assessments of coalition involvement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$10,263,269 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arabie saoudite
9%
Émirats arabes unis
7%
Qatar
4%
Bahreïn
2%
Koweït
2%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
2%
Royaume-Uni
1%
Jordanie
1%
Turquie
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Allemagne
<1%
Canada
<1%
$10,263,269 Vol.
Arabie saoudite
$2,067,306 Vol.
9%
Émirats arabes unis
$2,541,665 Vol.
7%
Qatar
$928,894 Vol.
4%
Bahreïn
$386,927 Vol.
2%
Koweït
$208,309 Vol.
2%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
$453,495 Vol.
2%
Royaume-Uni
$932,907 Vol.
1%
Jordanie
$184,755 Vol.
1%
Turquie
$470,162 Vol.
1%
France
$722,216 Vol.
1%
Oman
$128,156 Vol.
1%
Allemagne
$906,051 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$333,451 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, air defenses, and IRGC targets since launching the campaign on February 28, 2026, with intensified operations in the past week degrading Tehran's arms production. Iran's March 27 ballistic missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia—injuring at least 10 U.S. troops and damaging aircraft—prompted defensive intercepts by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, the latter of which executed limited strikes on March 4 after Iranian incursions. Stalled U.S. ceasefire proposals via mediators, rejected by Tehran, and Houthi escalation on March 28 underscore high risks of further military actions by allies before the March 31 deadline, shaping trader assessments of coalition involvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,263,269Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, air defenses, and IRGC targets since launching the campaign on February 28, 2026, with intensified operations in the past week degrading Tehran's arms production. Iran's March 27 ballistic missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia—injuring at least 10 U.S. troops and damaging aircraft—prompted defensive intercepts by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, the latter of which executed limited strikes on March 4 after Iranian incursions. Stalled U.S. ceasefire proposals via mediators, rejected by Tehran, and Houthi escalation on March 28 underscore high risks of further military actions by allies before the March 31 deadline, shaping trader assessments of coalition involvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,263,269Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, air defenses, and IRGC targets since launching the campaign on February 28, 2026, with intensified operations in the past week degrading Tehran's arms production. Iran's March 27 ballistic missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia—injuring at least 10 U.S. troops and damaging aircraft—prompted defensive intercepts by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, the latter of which executed limited strikes on March 4 after Iranian incursions. Stalled U.S. ceasefire proposals via mediators, rejected by Tehran, and Houthi escalation on March 28 underscore high risks of further military actions by allies before the March 31 deadline, shaping trader assessments of coalition involvement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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