US and Israeli forces have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field, and military targets in Tehran and Isfahan since launching Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, driving trader consensus on their active military action against Iran ahead of the March 31 deadline. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles targeting US bases and their territories, with Saudi officials asserting the right to retaliate but no confirmed offensive strikes into Iran. Recent escalations include Israeli warnings of expanded attacks and US pushes for ceasefire talks amid public polls showing concern over gasoline prices and operation scope, leaving involvement by additional nations like the UK or France uncertain despite base support and naval deployments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$10,403,904 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arabie saoudite
7%
Émirats arabes unis
6%
Qatar
3%
Bahreïn
2%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
1%
Koweït
1%
Royaume-Uni
1%
Turquie
1%
Jordanie
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Allemagne
<1%
Canada
<1%
$10,403,904 Vol.
Arabie saoudite
$2,130,821 Vol.
7%
Émirats arabes unis
$2,581,373 Vol.
6%
Qatar
$937,679 Vol.
3%
Bahreïn
$387,936 Vol.
2%
N'importe quel pays de l'U.E.
$459,773 Vol.
1%
Koweït
$209,767 Vol.
1%
Royaume-Uni
$938,064 Vol.
1%
Turquie
$474,276 Vol.
1%
Jordanie
$186,817 Vol.
1%
France
$723,944 Vol.
1%
Oman
$129,544 Vol.
1%
Allemagne
$909,177 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$334,732 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field, and military targets in Tehran and Isfahan since launching Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, driving trader consensus on their active military action against Iran ahead of the March 31 deadline. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles targeting US bases and their territories, with Saudi officials asserting the right to retaliate but no confirmed offensive strikes into Iran. Recent escalations include Israeli warnings of expanded attacks and US pushes for ceasefire talks amid public polls showing concern over gasoline prices and operation scope, leaving involvement by additional nations like the UK or France uncertain despite base support and naval deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$10,403,904Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field, and military targets in Tehran and Isfahan since launching Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, driving trader consensus on their active military action against Iran ahead of the March 31 deadline. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles targeting US bases and their territories, with Saudi officials asserting the right to retaliate but no confirmed offensive strikes into Iran. Recent escalations include Israeli warnings of expanded attacks and US pushes for ceasefire talks amid public polls showing concern over gasoline prices and operation scope, leaving involvement by additional nations like the UK or France uncertain despite base support and naval deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,403,904Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, energy infrastructure like the South Pars gas field, and military targets in Tehran and Isfahan since launching Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, driving trader consensus on their active military action against Iran ahead of the March 31 deadline. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles targeting US bases and their territories, with Saudi officials asserting the right to retaliate but no confirmed offensive strikes into Iran. Recent escalations include Israeli warnings of expanded attacks and US pushes for ceasefire talks amid public polls showing concern over gasoline prices and operation scope, leaving involvement by additional nations like the UK or France uncertain despite base support and naval deployments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes