Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim edge at 10.5% implied probability, buoyed by her unyielding anti-Putin activism carrying forward from her strong 2025 contention. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.8%, propelled by his fresh nomination this week from University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's democratic defense against Russian aggression as a global peace bulwark. Donald Trump sits third at 7.5%, sustained by speculative buzz around his diplomatic maneuvers despite polarizing optics. No clear frontrunner dominates amid diverse humanitarian and geopolitical narratives, with "Other" looming large; key swing factors include additional high-profile nominations by January's deadline and evolving conflict resolutions ahead of the October announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026
Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026
Yulia Navalnaya 11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.8%
Donald Trump 8%
La Cour internationale de Justice 3.8%
$11,738,171 Vol.
$11,738,171 Vol.
Yulia Navalnaya
11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10%
Donald Trump
8%
La Cour internationale de Justice
4%
Pope Leo XIV
4%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4%
UNRWA
3%
Greta Thunberg
3%
Narendra Modi
3%
Charlie Kirk
2%
Titre de l’élément de groupe : António Guterres
2%
Elon Musk
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Julian Assange
2%
Khaled Mashal
1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
Mohammed bin Salman
1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%
Vladimir Poutine
1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
Yulia Navalnaya 11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.8%
Donald Trump 8%
La Cour internationale de Justice 3.8%
$11,738,171 Vol.
$11,738,171 Vol.
Yulia Navalnaya
11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10%
Donald Trump
8%
La Cour internationale de Justice
4%
Pope Leo XIV
4%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4%
UNRWA
3%
Greta Thunberg
3%
Narendra Modi
3%
Charlie Kirk
2%
Titre de l’élément de groupe : António Guterres
2%
Elon Musk
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Julian Assange
2%
Khaled Mashal
1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
Mohammed bin Salman
1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%
Vladimir Poutine
1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Marché ouvert : Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim edge at 10.5% implied probability, buoyed by her unyielding anti-Putin activism carrying forward from her strong 2025 contention. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.8%, propelled by his fresh nomination this week from University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's democratic defense against Russian aggression as a global peace bulwark. Donald Trump sits third at 7.5%, sustained by speculative buzz around his diplomatic maneuvers despite polarizing optics. No clear frontrunner dominates amid diverse humanitarian and geopolitical narratives, with "Other" looming large; key swing factors include additional high-profile nominations by January's deadline and evolving conflict resolutions ahead of the October announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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