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Politique·Récompenses

Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026

Market icon
Politique·Récompenses

Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026

Yulia Navalnaya 11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.5%

Donald Trump 8%

Pope Leo XIV 4.1%

Polymarket

$11,587,708 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya 11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.5%

Donald Trump 8%

Pope Leo XIV 4.1%

Polymarket

$11,587,708 Vol.

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Yulia Navalnaya

$79,614 Vol.

11%

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$401,402 Vol.

10%

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Donald Trump

$2,303,597 Vol.

8%

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Pope Leo XIV

$474,619 Vol.

4%

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La Cour internationale de Justice

$475,980 Vol.

4%

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UNRWA

$1,616,340 Vol.

3%

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Greta Thunberg

$917,790 Vol.

3%

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Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$325,086 Vol.

3%

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Narendra Modi

$293,389 Vol.

3%

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Charlie Kirk

$480,316 Vol.

2%

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Elon Musk

$506,897 Vol.

2%

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Xi Jinping

$754,191 Vol.

2%

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Titre de l’élément de groupe : António Guterres

$142,791 Vol.

2%

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Julian Assange

$328,844 Vol.

2%

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Khaled Mashal

$204,908 Vol.

1%

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Mohammed bin Salman

$551,525 Vol.

1%

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Ahmed al-Sharaa

$542,606 Vol.

1%

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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$386,037 Vol.

1%

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Vladimir Poutine

$492,823 Vol.

1%

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Benjamin Netanyahu

$309,313 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket places Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, buoyed by her enduring campaign carrying forward Alexei Navalny's anti-authoritarian legacy amid ongoing Russian opposition efforts. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.4% following his formal nomination last week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, spotlighting Ukraine's democratic resilience against invasion as a compelling narrative. Donald Trump sits third at 7.5%, propped by U.S. political endorsements and prior deal-making claims, though controversy tempers momentum. With no outcome above 11% in this fragmented field, differentiation hinges on the Norwegian Nobel Committee's preference for grassroots human rights advocates over wartime leaders; upcoming precursor signals like additional nominations or PRIO endorsements could shift the deadlock before the October announcement.

Trader consensus on Polymarket places Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, buoyed by her enduring campaign carrying forward Alexei Navalny's anti-authoritarian legacy amid ongoing Russian opposition efforts. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.4% following his formal nomination last week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, spotlighting Ukraine's democratic resilience against invasion as a compelling narrative. Donald Trump sits third at 7.5%, propped by U.S. political endorsements and prior deal-making claims, though controversy tempers momentum. With no outcome above 11% in this fragmented field, differentiation hinges on the Norwegian Nobel Committee's preference for grassroots human rights advocates over wartime leaders; upcoming precursor signals like additional nominations or PRIO endorsements could shift the deadlock before the October announcement.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket places Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, buoyed by her enduring campaign carrying forward Alexei Navalny's anti-authoritarian legacy amid ongoing Russian opposition efforts. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.4% following his formal nomination last week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, spotlighting Ukraine's democratic resilience against invasion as a compelling narrative. Donald Trump sits third at 7.5%, propped by U.S. political endorsements and prior deal-making claims, though controversy tempers momentum. With no outcome above 11% in this fragmented field, differentiation hinges on the Norwegian Nobel Committee's preference for grassroots human rights advocates over wartime leaders; upcoming precursor signals like additional nominations or PRIO endorsements could shift the deadlock before the October announcement.

Trader consensus on Polymarket places Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, buoyed by her enduring campaign carrying forward Alexei Navalny's anti-authoritarian legacy amid ongoing Russian opposition efforts. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.4% following his formal nomination last week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, spotlighting Ukraine's democratic resilience against invasion as a compelling narrative. Donald Trump sits third at 7.5%, propped by U.S. political endorsements and prior deal-making claims, though controversy tempers momentum. With no outcome above 11% in this fragmented field, differentiation hinges on the Norwegian Nobel Committee's preference for grassroots human rights advocates over wartime leaders; upcoming precursor signals like additional nominations or PRIO endorsements could shift the deadlock before the October announcement.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 20 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Yulia Navalnaya » à 11%, suivi de « Volodymyr Zelenskyy » à 10%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 11¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 11% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » a généré $11.6 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Oct 16, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 », parcourez les 20 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » est « Yulia Navalnaya » à 11%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 11% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Volodymyr Zelenskyy » à 10%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.