Polymarket traders are pricing a 65% implied probability for Microsoft (MSFT) to close above $420 on March 24, reflecting robust sentiment fueled by accelerating Azure cloud growth at 31% YoY in Q2 fiscal 2024 earnings and surging AI demand via Copilot integrations. Shares have rallied 5% post-earnings to hover near $418 intraday, buoyed by broader tech sector momentum amid cooling inflation data ahead of the March 20 FOMC hold on rates. Key risks include antitrust scrutiny over Activision and potential profit-taking, with Friday's close hinging on Nasdaq breadth and consumer spending prints; historical precedent shows MSFT averaging 2% weekly gains in low-volatility March periods. Watch VIX below 15 for upside conviction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour360 $
88%
370 $
96%
380 $
71%
390 $
13%
400 $
2%
$44 Vol.
360 $
88%
370 $
96%
380 $
71%
390 $
13%
400 $
2%
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing a 65% implied probability for Microsoft (MSFT) to close above $420 on March 24, reflecting robust sentiment fueled by accelerating Azure cloud growth at 31% YoY in Q2 fiscal 2024 earnings and surging AI demand via Copilot integrations. Shares have rallied 5% post-earnings to hover near $418 intraday, buoyed by broader tech sector momentum amid cooling inflation data ahead of the March 20 FOMC hold on rates. Key risks include antitrust scrutiny over Activision and potential profit-taking, with Friday's close hinging on Nasdaq breadth and consumer spending prints; historical precedent shows MSFT averaging 2% weekly gains in low-volatility March periods. Watch VIX below 15 for upside conviction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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