Incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra's departure to pursue the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial race has opened IA-04, but the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of Republican general election margins exceeding 60% keep trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 89%. Chris McGowan emerged unopposed in the Republican primary after rivals like Matt Windschitl withdrew in February, bolstering his position with over $500,000 in receipts and $354,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. Democrats—Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane—hold a recent forum touting bipartisanship amid 118,000 more registered Republicans, yet ratings from Cook (Solid Republican, updated March 12) and others affirm low competitiveness ahead of the June 2 primaries. Late scandals or turnout surges could shift odds, though structural barriers loom large.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
IA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
89%
Parti démocrate
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
89%
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra's departure to pursue the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial race has opened IA-04, but the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of Republican general election margins exceeding 60% keep trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 89%. Chris McGowan emerged unopposed in the Republican primary after rivals like Matt Windschitl withdrew in February, bolstering his position with over $500,000 in receipts and $354,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. Democrats—Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane—hold a recent forum touting bipartisanship amid 118,000 more registered Republicans, yet ratings from Cook (Solid Republican, updated March 12) and others affirm low competitiveness ahead of the June 2 primaries. Late scandals or turnout surges could shift odds, though structural barriers loom large.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra's departure to pursue the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial race has opened IA-04, but the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of Republican general election margins exceeding 60% keep trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 89%. Chris McGowan emerged unopposed in the Republican primary after rivals like Matt Windschitl withdrew in February, bolstering his position with over $500,000 in receipts and $354,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. Democrats—Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane—hold a recent forum touting bipartisanship amid 118,000 more registered Republicans, yet ratings from Cook (Solid Republican, updated March 12) and others affirm low competitiveness ahead of the June 2 primaries. Late scandals or turnout surges could shift odds, though structural barriers loom large.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra's departure to pursue the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial race has opened IA-04, but the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and history of Republican general election margins exceeding 60% keep trader consensus heavily favoring the GOP at 89%. Chris McGowan emerged unopposed in the Republican primary after rivals like Matt Windschitl withdrew in February, bolstering his position with over $500,000 in receipts and $354,000 cash on hand as of late 2025. Democrats—Dave Dawson, Stephanie Steiner, and Ashley WolfTornabane—hold a recent forum touting bipartisanship amid 118,000 more registered Republicans, yet ratings from Cook (Solid Republican, updated March 12) and others affirm low competitiveness ahead of the June 2 primaries. Late scandals or turnout surges could shift odds, though structural barriers loom large.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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