Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. The open seat, created by incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship, has produced a clear GOP nominee in Chris McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, who secured the nomination unopposed after receiving a Trump endorsement. Democrat Dave Dawson, a former state representative, won his party's primary but confronts structural headwinds in the heavily rural northwestern Iowa district. With primaries concluded months ago and no major national or local developments altering the balance, trader consensus reflects the district's partisan baseline and limited path for a Democratic upset in November. Late-cycle polling shifts or turnout anomalies could still narrow the margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
IA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
7%
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$20,064 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$12,091 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. The open seat, created by incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship, has produced a clear GOP nominee in Chris McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, who secured the nomination unopposed after receiving a Trump endorsement. Democrat Dave Dawson, a former state representative, won his party's primary but confronts structural headwinds in the heavily rural northwestern Iowa district. With primaries concluded months ago and no major national or local developments altering the balance, trader consensus reflects the district's partisan baseline and limited path for a Democratic upset in November. Late-cycle polling shifts or turnout anomalies could still narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$32,156Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. The open seat, created by incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship, has produced a clear GOP nominee in Chris McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, who secured the nomination unopposed after receiving a Trump endorsement. Democrat Dave Dawson, a former state representative, won his party's primary but confronts structural headwinds in the heavily rural northwestern Iowa district. With primaries concluded months ago and no major national or local developments altering the balance, trader consensus reflects the district's partisan baseline and limited path for a Democratic upset in November. Late-cycle polling shifts or turnout anomalies could still narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,156Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. The open seat, created by incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship, has produced a clear GOP nominee in Chris McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, who secured the nomination unopposed after receiving a Trump endorsement. Democrat Dave Dawson, a former state representative, won his party's primary but confronts structural headwinds in the heavily rural northwestern Iowa district. With primaries concluded months ago and no major national or local developments altering the balance, trader consensus reflects the district's partisan baseline and limited path for a Democratic upset in November. Late-cycle polling shifts or turnout anomalies could still narrow the margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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