Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 27°C (96%) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 1 at Bao'an International Airport, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast projecting a daytime high of 27°C amid partly cloudy skies and humid southerly flows. This aligns with ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, reflecting warm subtropical air masses typical for early April, where historical airport highs average 26–27°C with limited intensification potential due to cloud cover suppressing solar heating. Morning observations already nearing 24°C support this trajectory. Realistic challenges include prolonged sun breaks or urban heat islands nudging toward 28°C (3% implied odds), though high humidity and timing of peak insolation make exceedance unlikely; intraday CMA updates will refine resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?
27°C 95.1%
28°C 4.8%
29°C 1.0%
30°C <1%
$186,359 Vol.
$186,359 Vol.
23°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
95%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 95.1%
28°C 4.8%
29°C 1.0%
30°C <1%
$186,359 Vol.
$186,359 Vol.
23°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
95%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 27°C (96%) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 1 at Bao'an International Airport, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast projecting a daytime high of 27°C amid partly cloudy skies and humid southerly flows. This aligns with ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, reflecting warm subtropical air masses typical for early April, where historical airport highs average 26–27°C with limited intensification potential due to cloud cover suppressing solar heating. Morning observations already nearing 24°C support this trajectory. Realistic challenges include prolonged sun breaks or urban heat islands nudging toward 28°C (3% implied odds), though high humidity and timing of peak insolation make exceedance unlikely; intraday CMA updates will refine resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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