With Eurovision 2025's grand final looming on May 17 in Basel, Switzerland, the host nation and city for the 2026 contest remain undecided, creating ripple effects in early trader positioning for top 5 finishers as the winner gains automatic hosting advantage and momentum. Historical televote powerhouses like Croatia (runners-up in 2024) and Sweden (multiple recent contenders via Melodifestivalen) dominate implied probabilities, bolstered by Big 5 direct qualifiers Italy, France, and the UK. Recent developments include broadcasters launching national selections—Sweden confirming Melodifestivalen for early 2026, the BBC opening UK artist submissions, and Norway's submissions deadline in October—while fan polls echo bookmakers favoring Nordic and Balkan entries. Diaspora voting, jury-televote splits, and draw positioning will be pivotal as submissions ramp up through fall 2025.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEurovision 2026: Top 5
Eurovision 2026: Top 5

Finland
81%

Greece
60%

France
59%

Denmark
55%

Israel
54%

Australia
53%

Sweden
41%

Ukraine
37%

Italy
34%

Romania
17%

Czechia
17%

Cyprus
17%

Bulgaria
15%

Norway
15%

Armenia
15%

Moldova
15%

Germany
13%

Serbia
13%

Georgia
13%

Croatia
12%

Montenegro
11%

Lithuania
11%

Poland
11%

Albania
10%

United Kingdom
10%

Austria
10%

Latvia
10%

San Marino
9%

Luxembourg
9%

Belgium
9%

Azerbaijan
8%

Estonia
8%

Portugal
8%

Switzerland
11%

Malta
21%
$7,318 Vol.

Finland
81%

Greece
60%

France
59%

Denmark
55%

Israel
54%

Australia
53%

Sweden
41%

Ukraine
37%

Italy
34%

Romania
17%

Czechia
17%

Cyprus
17%

Bulgaria
15%

Norway
15%

Armenia
15%

Moldova
15%

Germany
13%

Serbia
13%

Georgia
13%

Croatia
12%

Montenegro
11%

Lithuania
11%

Poland
11%

Albania
10%

United Kingdom
10%

Austria
10%

Latvia
10%

San Marino
9%

Luxembourg
9%

Belgium
9%

Azerbaijan
8%

Estonia
8%

Portugal
8%

Switzerland
11%

Malta
21%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Mar 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...With Eurovision 2025's grand final looming on May 17 in Basel, Switzerland, the host nation and city for the 2026 contest remain undecided, creating ripple effects in early trader positioning for top 5 finishers as the winner gains automatic hosting advantage and momentum. Historical televote powerhouses like Croatia (runners-up in 2024) and Sweden (multiple recent contenders via Melodifestivalen) dominate implied probabilities, bolstered by Big 5 direct qualifiers Italy, France, and the UK. Recent developments include broadcasters launching national selections—Sweden confirming Melodifestivalen for early 2026, the BBC opening UK artist submissions, and Norway's submissions deadline in October—while fan polls echo bookmakers favoring Nordic and Balkan entries. Diaspora voting, jury-televote splits, and draw positioning will be pivotal as submissions ramp up through fall 2025.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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