Market icon
Monde·Brésil

Élection présidentielle brésilienne

Market icon
Monde·Brésil

Élection présidentielle brésilienne

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 41%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.2%

Renan Santos 6.7%

Fernando Haddad 4.8%

Polymarket

$46,324,095 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 41%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.2%

Renan Santos 6.7%

Fernando Haddad 4.8%

Polymarket

$46,324,095 Vol.

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,442,309 Vol.

41%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$3,950,485 Vol.

37%

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Renan Santos

$3,880,192 Vol.

7%

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Fernando Haddad

$3,320,652 Vol.

5%

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Camilo Santana

$930,373 Vol.

3%

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Ronaldo Caiado

$1,495,136 Vol.

2%

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Romeu Zema

$471,574 Vol.

2%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$2,632,781 Vol.

1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$767,378 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$3,516,450 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$5,969,707 Vol.

<1%

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Ratinho Júnior

$5,774,274 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Eduardo Leite

$1,901,110 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Aldo Rebelo

$430,270 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Tarcisio de Freitas

$6,843,755 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Ideia’s April 3–7 survey showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.8% to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.5% in a simulated second-round runoff, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote. Lula maintains slim first-round leads across late-March and early-April polling averages (38–46% vs. Flávio’s 35–40%), buoyed by incumbency and PT organizational strength, but Flávio’s rise leverages the enduring Bolsonaro brand among conservative voters amid economic headwinds and Lula’s dipping approval. High undecided shares (8–12%) and voter volatility sustain the deadlock; catalysts like Lula’s candidacy confirmation, economic indicators, or gubernatorial endorsements could tip the balance toward a runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$46,324,095
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Ideia’s April 3–7 survey showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.8% to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.5% in a simulated second-round runoff, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote. Lula maintains slim first-round leads across late-March and early-April polling averages (38–46% vs. Flávio’s 35–40%), buoyed by incumbency and PT organizational strength, but Flávio’s rise leverages the enduring Bolsonaro brand among conservative voters amid economic headwinds and Lula’s dipping approval. High undecided shares (8–12%) and voter volatility sustain the deadlock; catalysts like Lula’s candidacy confirmation, economic indicators, or gubernatorial endorsements could tip the balance toward a runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$46,324,095
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Élection présidentielle brésilienne » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 15 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 41%, suivi de « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 37%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 41¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 41% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Élection présidentielle brésilienne » a généré $46.3 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 18, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Élection présidentielle brésilienne », parcourez les 15 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection présidentielle brésilienne » est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 41%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 41% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 37%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection présidentielle brésilienne » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.