Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 62% probability of Apple (AAPL) closing above $230 by March 31, propelled by strong iPhone 16 launch momentum and AI-driven services growth, with Q4 revenue hitting $94.9 billion per official filings. Shares trade at $226.50 amid a 25% YTD rally, buoyed by analyst targets averaging $250. Key catalysts include February 5 fiscal Q1 earnings and March 12 CPI release, which could signal consumer spending resilience; risks stem from China iPhone weakness and potential Fed rate cuts lifting tech multiples. Historical EOM closes show AAPL averaging 1.5% monthly gains in bull markets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$251,841 Vol.
210 $
98%
220 $
98%
230 $
94%
240 $
81%
250 $
48%
260 $
26%
270 $
10%
280 $
16%
290 $
1%
300 $
1%
310 $
1%
320 $
1%
330 $
1%
$251,841 Vol.
210 $
98%
220 $
98%
230 $
94%
240 $
81%
250 $
48%
260 $
26%
270 $
10%
280 $
16%
290 $
1%
300 $
1%
310 $
1%
320 $
1%
330 $
1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Marché ouvert : Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 62% probability of Apple (AAPL) closing above $230 by March 31, propelled by strong iPhone 16 launch momentum and AI-driven services growth, with Q4 revenue hitting $94.9 billion per official filings. Shares trade at $226.50 amid a 25% YTD rally, buoyed by analyst targets averaging $250. Key catalysts include February 5 fiscal Q1 earnings and March 12 CPI release, which could signal consumer spending resilience; risks stem from China iPhone weakness and potential Fed rate cuts lifting tech multiples. Historical EOM closes show AAPL averaging 1.5% monthly gains in bull markets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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