Name: Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?
Start: 2025-12-16T23:54:34.01308Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if xQc breaks Forsen's In-Game-Time of 15:28:130 in a Minecraft speedrun during a live stream by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve to “No” as soon as it becomes impossible for xQc to complete a qualifying speedrun within this market’s timeframe.

For the purpose of this market, “Minecraft speedrun” refers to a playthrough of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed, starting from world creation and ending when the Ender Dragon is defeated.

For the purpose of this market, “Stream” refers to a live video broadcast hosted by xQc or where xQc is present. Prerecorded videos, videos not intended for public release, or other non-live content will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be xQc's Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/xqc); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31

This market will resolve to “Yes” if xQc breaks Forsen's In-Game-Time of 15:28:130 in a Minecraft speedrun during a live stream by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve to “No” as soon as it becomes impossible for xQc to complete a qualifying speedrun within this market’s timeframe.

For the purpose of this market, “Minecraft speedrun” refers to a playthrough of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed, starting from world creation and ending when the Ender Dragon is defeated.

For the purpose of this market, “Stream” refers to a live video broadcast hosted by xQc or where xQc is present. Prerecorded videos, videos not intended for public release, or other non-live content will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be xQc's Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/xqc); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

January 31

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of views any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first day after being posted is greater than or equal to 50 million by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.


50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) unfollows Grimes (@Grimezsz) on X at any point between December 10, 2025, 2PM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If either of the ‘@elonmusk’ or ‘@Grimezsz’ X accounts are deleted or disabled this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk X account (@elonmusk), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship, currently scheduled for October 13, 2025, to February 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the listed player is eliminated from the championship under the tournament's official rules, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chess.com, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used in case of discrepancies.

If the winner is not announced by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if s1mple, the professional counter-strike player, announces his retirement from professional competitive esports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement from s1mple that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred.

Breaks, periods of inactivity, transitions to another game, or transitions to streaming will not count unless s1mple explicitly announces his retirement from professional competitive esports. 

The resolution source will be official announcements from s1mple, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will s1mple retire by June 30?

The market will resolve to "Yes" if Sebastian "Forsen" Fors is officially announced as the sole MVP or co-MVP of the NLC 2026 Winter Split. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve to “No” when it becomes impossible for Forsen to win the MVP.

This market will resolve to “No” if no MVP has been officially announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official NLC channels and Riot Games; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Forsen be the NLC 2026 Winter Split MVP?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if FalleN, the professional Counter-Strike player, announces his retirement from professional competitive esports by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

An announcement from FalleN that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred. 

Breaks, periods of inactivity, transitions to another game, or transitions to streaming will not count unless FalleN explicitly announces his retirement from professional competitive esports.

The resolution source will be official announcements from FalleN; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will FalleN retire by June 1? 

The market resolves to "Yes" if Sebastian "Forsen" Fors is officially announced as signed or recruited by an LCK organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A professional League of Legends LCK organization is any of the 10 franchised organizations that field a paid League of Legends roster in the LCK.

“Signs” refers to Forsen entering into a paid contract with an organization to compete in League of Legends for that organization. Trials or other relationships that do not include a signed professional playing contract will not count. Sponsorship agreements or other contracts that do not pay Forsen to compete in League of Legends for a specific organization will also not count.

A signed professional contract between Forsen and a qualifying LCK organization within this market’s timeframe will qualify even if its effective start date is after June 30, 2026.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the team involved and Forsen, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any sex tape featuring  Nick Fuentes, is made public between December 6, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying "sex tapes" must be video footage involving sexual acts directly depicting the genitals of any individual(s) shown. The video must be authentic, not animated or AI-altered.

The primary resolution source will be publicly released video, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Nick Fuentes sex tape released by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any two or more of the former members of FaZe Clan known as Adapt, Lacy, Silky, Stable Ronaldo, and/or JasonTheWeen form a new professional organization together by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A qualifying organization must involve an indefinite formal partnership, including but not limited to a registered business, esports organization, streaming cooperative, or a shared content brand (e.g., a shared YouTube channel). Social media appearances, joint streams, one-off projects, or other forms of temporary or informal collaborations will not qualify.

Official announcements from the listed former FaZe Clan members that they have launched or are officially launching a new organization together will be sufficient to resolve this market. Social media posts or statements made on streams will count as long as they signify a qualifying formal launch. Suggestions, comments, or statements of tentative plans yet to be made official will not count.

The primary resolution source will be information from the listed people and/or the relevant organizations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Ex-FaZe members form new organization by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

Alex Honnold is scheduled to free solo (climb without ropes or protective equipment) the tallest building in Taiwan (Taipei 101) on a Netflix livestream on January 23, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alex Honnold completes a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Alex Honnold’s free solo will be considered completed if he finishes the full route depicted as the official climb in the Netflix livestream of the event without the use of ropes or protective equipment. If the livestream presents the climb as ending upon reaching the roof or 101st floor of Taipei 101, the climb will be considered completed once Honnold reaches that point. If the livestream presents the official route as continuing beyond the 101st floor to the top of the building’s spire, the climb will be considered completed once Honnold reaches the top of the spire.

If Honnold abandons his free solo before completion (e.g. he climbs back down or enters the building through a window), this market will resolve to “No”.

If Honnold’s free solo attempt is canceled, postponed after January 31, 2026, or otherwise not completed within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution sources for this market will be the Netflix livestream of Honnold’s climb and official information from Alex Honnold or Netflix; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?

This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

New Half-Life game by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for Metamask is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k by December 31, 2026?

Jensen Huang is scheduled to participate in a event, "NVIDIA Live at CES 2026 with Founder and CEO Jensen Huang" on January 5, 2026, 4 PM ET (see https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/events/ces/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jensen Huang says the listed term at any point during the event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips or prerecorded videos are aired where Jensen Huang is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

Censored instances of a given term that cannot be heard in full will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated content will not be considered when resolving this market.

If this appearance is definitively cancelled or otherwise is not released by January 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio/video of the appearance.

Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in January?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.

The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. 

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?     

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Infinex.

Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between December 10, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

Another Elon baby by June 30?

The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://www.youtube.com/@allin)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

Only All-Podcast episodes posted on (https://allin.com/episodes) will count for this market. Other episodes or specials posted on the youtube channel will not count.

If no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will "Trump" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if StandX officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will StandX launch a token by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Colombia" this week? (January 11)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

On December 22, a video surfaced depicting the 2019 suicide of Jeffrey Epstein in his prison cell, sourced from the Epstein files released on December 19. https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%208/EFTA00029924.mp4

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is definitive evidence confirming the authenticity of the video by January 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If any federal authority of the United States formally confirms that the video is not significantly digitally altered, edited, AI-generated or augmented, or doctored to make it appear as though it is footage of Jeffrey Epstein's suicide it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the US Government.

Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real?

Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:

- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.

If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?

January 31
$93,971 Vol.
26%

Market Context

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?

Rules

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?

Market Context

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?

About

Related

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?

January 31$93,971 Vol.26%buy Yes27¢buy No75¢

Market Context

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?

Rules

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?

Market Context

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by...?

About

Related

January 31
$93,971 Vol.
26%