Name: Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?
Start: 2024-01-12T19:46:01.438Z
End: 2024-01-28T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Novak Djokovic wins the 2024 Australian Open in the Men’s Singles category. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If Novak Djokovic is eliminated before the finals this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Australian Open (https://ausopen.com/)

Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?

The 2026 Australian Open is set to take place from January 18 - February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Australian Open (https://ausopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?

This polymarket will resolve to the team that wins the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament.

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed pair wins the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this pair to win the tournament per the official rules of the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Serie A standings for the 2025-26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Serie A standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Serie A tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025-26 Serie A season is cancelled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A soccer. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Inter finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.

If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament?

This market refers to the exhibition tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Nick Kyrgios, scheduled for December 28 in Dubai.

This market will resolve to 'Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka defeats Nick Kyrgios.

This market will resolve to 'Kyrgios' if Nick Kyrgios defeats Aryna Sabalenka.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player wins due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who is declared the winner.

The primary resolution source will be official information from event organizers or credible sports media reporting on the exhibition match. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: Special rules apply to this exhibition match, including the use of only one serve per point and a reduced court size on Sabalenka’s side. This market will resolve according to the winner as determined under the match’s official rules.

Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Sanremo 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Sanremo 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Sanremo rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanremo (https://sanremofestival.info/), including live footage of Sanremo 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Will Fedez & Marco Masini win Sanremo 2026?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be the ICC (https://www.icc-cricket.com/tournaments/mens-t20-world-cup-2026); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. 

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

This is a market to predict which athlete will win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Tennis Player.

If the listed player wins the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Tennis Player, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 ESPYS are cancelled or postponed past August 16, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/espys/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Coco Gauff win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Tennis Player?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note: reaching the Play-In Tournament will not qualify as making the Playoffs. To make the NBA Playoffs, a team must earn one of the 16 spots in the postseason bracket.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to make the Playoffs based on the rules of the NBA (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from reaching the Play-In), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the NBA Playoffs?

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if all Italy, Bolivia, and DR Congo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for one of these teams to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from their group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA.  (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).

FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualification Longshots Parlay

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament.

If it becomes impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e., the team is eliminated), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No.”

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

Will LSU (Women’s) win the 2025–2026 SEC Regular Season?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No".

If the listed team qualifies for the playoffs early, the market will resolve to "Yes". 
If the listed team is eliminated based on the rules of the competition, the market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will the Houston Texans make the playoffs?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Bundesliga tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team advances to the Round of 16 of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from finishing in the top 24 of the league phase), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bayern Munich advance to the round of 16?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

This market will resolve according to the national team that finishes in second place (loses in the final) in the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish in second place in the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the group stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be the ICC (https://www.icc-cricket.com/tournaments/mens-t20-world-cup-2026); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will India finish second in the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?

This is a market to predict which player will win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is officially named the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the award is not announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA (https://www.nba.com).

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Verstappen is no longer officially contracted to race for Red Bull Racing in Formula 1 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Max Verstappen must no longer be under contract to race for Red Bull Racing in Formula 1 as of the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes". An agreement indicating he will leave after the resolution date will not qualify as "Yes" for this market. 

Temporary absences (e.g., due to injury, suspension, or personal reasons) do not count unless they are accompanied by official confirmation of contract termination or departure.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from Red Bull Racing or Formula 1, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Ligue 1 tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Paris St-Germain finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ja Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies is traded to another NBA team before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Ja Morant be traded in 2025?

The ICC T20 Men’s World Cup is scheduled to begin on February 7, 2026. Four of the twenty competing teams will advance through the group stage and Super 8 stage to reach the semifinals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed national team advances to the semifinals of the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup based on the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the group stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 ICC T20 Men’s World Cup is permanently canceled or the tournament semifinalists are not definitively known by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be the ICC (https://www.icc-cricket.com/tournaments/mens-t20-world-cup-2026); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Australia reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the Naismith College Player of the Year Award for the 2025-2026 Men’s NCAA division 1 basketball season.

If the listed player is not included as a semifinalist or finalist for the Naismith College Player of the Year Award, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no winner is announced by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from the Naismith Awards organizers (https://naismithtrophy.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Darryn Peterson win the 2025-2026 Naismith Men's College Player of the Year Award?

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes the 2025-2026 NBA Regular Season with the best record in the league.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to finish the regular Season with the best record.

If multiple teams are tied for most wins in the 2025-26 NBA Regular Season, this market will resolve in favor of the team who receives home court advantage for the 2026 NBA playoffs. A list of the NBA’s Tiebreak Procedures can be found here: https://ak-static-int.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/06/NBA_Tiebreaker_Procedures.pdf

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jayson Tatum plays in any regular season or postseason NBA game during the 2025-2026 NBA season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

"Playing" is defined as Jayson Tatum playing any amount of time in a game. Merely being on the active roster will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA (https://www.nba.com/).

Will Jayson Tatum play a game this season?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player officially qualifies for the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament is cancelled or rescheduled past January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIDE Candidates Tournament organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Hikaru Nakamura qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025–26 NHL Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A team will be considered to have made the Playoffs if it qualifies for the postseason bracket under the official rules of the NHL for the 2025–26 season. Qualification through any officially recognized NHL format (including Wild Card berths) will count.

If it becomes impossible for the listed team to qualify for the Playoffs based on the rules of the NHL (e.g. the team is mathematically eliminated), this market will resolve immediately to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the Minnesota Wild make the NHL Playoffs?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Gavin Newsom' in the "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028?tid=1764680585562) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any four-hour period ending by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-newsom-dem-pres-nominee-over-45-by-december-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.


Odds of Newsom Dem Pres Nominee over 45% by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their listed projected number of regular-season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the season ends, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Miami Heat win more than 37.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Melodifestivalen 2026, who will represent Sweden in the 2026 Eurovision song contest.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Melodifestivalen 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Melodifestivalen rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Melodifastivalen (https://eurovisionworld.com/national/sweden/melodifestivalen-2026), including live footage of Melodifestivalen 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the La Liga standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the La Liga standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official La Liga tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025–26 La Liga season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from La Liga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Barcelona finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?

Market Context

Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?

Rules

Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?

Market Context

Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?

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