Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

$3,303,194 Vol.

OUTCOMERESULT

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
Volume
$3,303,194
Created At
Oct 19, 2025, 7:09 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$3,303,194 Vol.

Market icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

October 20

$24,419 Vol.

Yes

circle check

October 21

$79,720 Vol.

No

circle xmark

October 22

$26,345 Vol.

No

circle xmark

October 23

$3,122,261 Vol.

No

circle xmark

October 24

$50,449 Vol.

No

circle xmark

About

Volume
$3,303,194
Created At
Oct 19, 2025, 7:09 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.