Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
$6,087,926 Vol.
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
December 16
$11,786 Vol.
<1%
December 16
$11,786 Vol.
<1%
December 17
$42,115 Vol.
1%
December 17
$42,115 Vol.
1%
December 18
$2,468 Vol.
35%
December 18
$2,468 Vol.
35%
December 19
$466 Vol.
37%
December 19
$466 Vol.
37%
December 20
$177 Vol.
31%
December 20
$177 Vol.
31%
December 21
$187 Vol.
35%
December 21
$187 Vol.
35%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Created At: Nov 25, 2025, 1:14 PM UTC
Volume
$6,087,926End Date
Dec 7, 2025Created At
Nov 25, 2025, 1:14 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
$6,087,926 Vol.
Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
December 16
$11,786 Vol.
<1%
December 17
$42,115 Vol.
1%
December 18
$2,468 Vol.
35%
December 19
$466 Vol.
37%
December 20
$177 Vol.
31%
December 21
$187 Vol.
35%
About
Volume
$6,087,926End Date
Dec 7, 2025Created At
Nov 25, 2025, 1:14 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.