Name: Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?
Start: 2025-02-14T23:53:02.697895Z
End: 2025-03-31T12:00:00Z

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his market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of El Salvador or Nayib Bukele is directly involved in the deployment of a memecoin between February 14, 6:00 PM ET and March 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by the government of El Salvador or Nayib Bukele with consent or authorization will qualify. Tokens which are announced through hacked accounts or which otherwise do not meet this criteria will not qualify.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), officially recognized stablecoins, or other cryptocurrencies which are not widely considered to be memecoins will not qualify.

Central African Republic's President Faustin-Archange Touadéra's announcement of $CAR is an example of a qualifying memecoin.


Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify. 


Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").

A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).

Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the Central African Republic on December 28, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (Autorité nationale des élections or ANE on https://www.ane-rca.org/). 

If the election outcome is ambiguous and the information from the specified resolution source is not definitive, this market will resolve to the candidate who takes office the following term.

Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Revolut, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 6 or more tokens launched in 2026 end the year with an FDV above $1B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data).

Stablecoins, LSTs, liquidity pool tokens, or synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Will 6+ coins launched in 2026 end the year above $1B FDV?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

A token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched.

The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data).

Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the November 30 Honduran presidential election are annulled by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

The results of this election will be considered annulled if they are formally declared invalid by the Honduras Tribunal de Justicia Electoral or another official body of the government of Honduras with the legal jurisdiction to do so.

If an official body of the government of Honduras with legal jurisdiction to rule on this matter has formally accepted a case seeking annulment of this election and no ruling has been issued by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open until a ruling is publicly announced.

This market will resolve based on the first qualifying ruling issued that annuls this election. Subsequent appeals or challenges will not be considered.

The resolution sources will be official information from the government of Honduras and a consensus of credible reporting.

Honduras presidential election annulled by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of President Nicolás Maduro taken after January 2 is made widely available to the public by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of Nicolás Maduro becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, etc.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the government.

Maduro mugshot released by January 16?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daylight (https://x.com/daylight) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Daylight, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rabby officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Unit, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Somaliland as an independent state by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the U.S. government's formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Loopscale (http://x.com/Loopscale) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Loopscale, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if USD.AI officially launches a governance token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from USD.AI (https://x.com/USDai_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pacifica (https://x.com/pacifica_fi) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Pacifica, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if authentic helmet/body-cam video footage recorded after January 2 that shows U.S. forces physically capturing (taking into custody) President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela is made widely available to the public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if such capture footage becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or published by media.

Qualifying footage must be at least 5 seconds in length and depict the moment Maduro is physically apprehended or restrained (or immediately thereafter while still at/within the capture location in Venezuela) in a way that makes it clear from the video that the operation is effecting his capture. Footage of Maduro already in custody outside Venezuela (e.g., aboard a ship/aircraft, at an airport, or at a U.S. facility) will not count unless it also includes the initial apprehension in Venezuela. Still images alone will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Infinex.

Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aztec officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Aztec (https://aztec.network/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Aztec launch a token by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tempo (https://tempo.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tempo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if StandX officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will StandX launch a token by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Extended, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Trove (https://trovemarkets.com/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trove, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trove launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Paradex (https://www.paradex.trade/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Paradex, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Paradex launch a token by June 30 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Perena (https://x.com/perena) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Perena, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the US and Venezuela between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the US and Venezuela; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the US and Venezuela has been reached will suffice.

US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Fomo (https://fomo.family/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Fomo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total stablecoin market cap shown on DefiLlama is equal to or greater than $500B on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is DefiLlama’s Total Stablecoins page, available at:
https://defillama.com/stablecoins

A data point on the DefiLlama chart is considered finalized once the data point for the following day is published.

If the DefiLlama page becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other credible and publicly verifiable sources.

Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?

Market Context

Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?

Rules

Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?

Market Context

Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April?

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