Name: "Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office
Start: 2025-11-26T23:09:06.607979Z
End: 2025-12-01T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to how much "Wicked: For Good" Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day weekend (November 26 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

85-93m

101-109m

<85m

93-101m

>109m

"Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office

This market will resolve to "Wicked" if “Wicked: For Good” (2025) will gross more domestically on its opening weekend compared to "Avatar: Fire and Ash" (2025).

This market will resolve to "Avatar" if “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (2025) will gross at least as much on its opening weekend compared to "Wicked: For Good" (2025).

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on The Numbers “Box Office” tab for "Wicked: For Good" (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)#tab=summary) and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Avatar-Fire-and-Ash-(2025)#tab=summary) will be used once the values for each film's 3-day opening weekend (November 21-23/December 19-21) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). 

Please note that this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether 'domestic' refers to only the USA, or to the USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by December 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?

This market will resolve according to how much "Avatar: Fire and Ash" box office will gross domestically by January 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (December 19, 2025) and January 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including January 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?

This market will resolve to the movie with the second highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve to the movie with the third highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show.

The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only).

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by December 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)

This market will resolve according to the index that performs best for the week beginning December 15, among the Warren Buffett Index, the Bill Ackman Index, and the S&P 500.

The performance of each index will be determined by the 1-week trailing percentage return of each index for the final trading day of the specified week. The index with the best percentage return will be deemed the winner.

The resolution source for the Warren Buffett Index ("Buffett") is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559450392165007360

Information from the "Performance" table, specifically the 1-week trailing percentage return figure found under "1W", will be used to resolve this market, once information is finalized for the final day of the specified trading period.

The resolution source for the Bill Ackman Index ("Ackman") is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559452008356167680

Information from the "Performance" table, specifically the 1-week trailing percentage return figure found under "1W", will be used to resolve this market, once information is finalized for the final day of the specified trading period.

The resolution source for S&P 500 ("SPX") is: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices

Information from the "Historical Prices" table will be used to resolve this market, specifically the 1-week trailing percentage return calculated as the percentage change between the closing price for the final trading day of the specified week and the closing price for the corresponding day of the previous week (e.g. if the final trading day of the specified week is a Thursday, the closing price of the previous Thursday will be used to calculate the 1-week trailing percentage return).

Note that all relevant figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If multiple indices perform exactly the same over this market’s timeframe, this market will resolve according to the Index whose abbreviation comes first, as listed in this market group. 

If the specified indices do not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve to “Other”.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published for each relevant index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If any of the relevant days lack a specified price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), this market will use the last valid historical price offered by the specified resolution sources as the effective closing price for that day.

Updates to historical prices displayed by any of the indices subsequent to this market's resolution will not be considered. This market will resolve according to the methodologies utilized by the specified indices as of the resolution time of this market, regardless of whether those methodologies are later updated.

Will the Warren Buffett Index have the best performance for the week of December 15?

This market will resolve according to the Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer “All Critics” Tomatometer score for "The Witcher: Season 4" (2025) as of December 31, 2025 at 10:00AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked every 6 hours, until the actual data is available.

"The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 45 and 59?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Netflix (NFLX) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Netflix (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$95 in 2025?

This is a market on how whether 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) will have the second-highest domestic gross on its opening weekend compared to all other movies released in 2025. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 21 - 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) grosses the second-highest on its 3-day domestic opening weekend compared to any other movie in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If two other movies' opening weekend box office performances surpass that of 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) after the respective numbers are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will rank higher.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Marty Supreme (2025) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on December 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by January 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Will "Marty Supreme" score at least 93 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Netflix (directly or through a subsidiary) acquires control of Warner Bros.’ film and TV studios and associated streaming/pay-TV businesses (including HBO / HBO Max and related content libraries), as described in the companies’ December 5, 2025 acquisition announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the transaction is terminated, allowed to lapse past its contractual outside date without closing, blocked by regulators, or replaced by an alternative structure in which Netflix does not acquire control of Warner Bros.’ film/TV studios and streaming business, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the acquisition closes on substantially similar terms—even with changes to price, mix of cash/stock, or required divestitures—but Netflix still ends up in control of the Warner Bros film and TV studios and the HBO/HBO Max streaming business, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

Resolution will be based on official company communications and regulatory filings from Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery (or any successor entities), supplemented as needed by a consensus of reporting from major reputable news outlets.

Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?  

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Carnival (CCL) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for CCL prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Carnival (CCL) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for CCL prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If CCL does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for CCL.

"Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office

<85m
$26,697 Vol.
No

85-93m
$40,908 Vol.
Yes

93-101m
$39,715 Vol.
No

101-109m
$50,395 Vol.
No

>109m
$25,089 Vol.
No

Market Context

"Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office

Rules

"Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office

Market Context

"Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office

About

Related

"Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office

<85m$26,697 Vol.Nocircle xmark

85-93m$40,908 Vol.Yescircle check

93-101m$39,715 Vol.Nocircle xmark

101-109m$50,395 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>109m$25,089 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

"Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office

Rules

"Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office

Market Context

"Wicked: For Good" Second 5-Day Weekend Box Office

About

Related

<85m
$26,697 Vol.
No

85-93m
$40,908 Vol.
Yes

93-101m
$39,715 Vol.
No

101-109m
$50,395 Vol.
No

>109m
$25,089 Vol.
No