Defending champion Rory McIlroy's second-round 65 established the benchmark as the 2026 Masters' lowest single-round score to date, fueling trader consensus at 90.8% implied probability amid benign Augusta National conditions that produced record-low field averages. His precision iron play and hot putter on the slick bentgrass greens, combined with strong course history including last year's playoff victory, solidify his dominant position, especially after building a record six-shot 36-hole lead before Round 3 volatility. While Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Young matched 65 Saturday via elite ball-striking, no sub-65 has emerged; challengers like Justin Rose (strong Augusta affinity, steady scoring) or Scheffler (career-low Masters round) could post a superior Sunday 64 or better under firmer pins and variable winds, but traders see slim upset paths given McIlroy's momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRory McIlroy 100.0%
Ryan Fox 1.0%
Bubba Watson 1.0%
Akshay Bhatia <1%
$7,158 Vol.
$7,158 Vol.
Akshay Bhatia
No
Tommy Fleetwood
No
Ryan Fox
No
Tyrrell Hatton
No
Nick Taylor
No
Viktor Hovland
No
Matt McCarty
No
Zach Johnson
No
Tom McKibbin
No
Hao-Tong Li
No
Andrew Novak
No
Michael Brennan
No
Rory McIlroy
Yes
Maverick McNealy
No
Davis Riley
No
Ethan Fang
No
Pongsapak Laopakdee
No
Angel Cabrera
No
Scottie Scheffler
No
Cameron Smith
No
Jake Knapp
No
Jordan Spieth
No
Justin Thomas
No
J.J. Spaun
No
Bryson DeChambeau
No
Sung-Jae Im
No
Harris English
No
Matt Fitzpatrick
No
Daniel Berger
No
Russell Henley
No
Max Homa
No
Nicolas Echavarria
No
Sam Stevens
No
Robert MacIntyre
No
Kristoffer Reitan
No
Collin Morikawa
No
Brian Campbell
No
Justin Rose
No
Danny Willett
No
Cameron Young
No
Ludvig Aberg
No
Keegan Bradley
No
Jacob Bridgeman
No
Patrick Cantlay
No
Wyndham Clark
No
Fred Couples
No
Gary Woodland
No
Sergio Garcia
No
Kurt Kitayama
No
Max Greyserman
No
Nicolai Hojgaard
No
Aldrich Potgieter
No
Ryan Gerard
No
Michael Kim
No
Shane Lowry
No
Mason Howell
No
Jon Rahm
No
Patrick Reed
No
Jackson Herrington
No
Charl Schwartzel
No
Carlos Ortiz
No
Sepp Straka
No
Vijay Singh
No
Jose Maria Olazabal
No
Chris Gotterup
No
Si Woo Kim
No
Sam Burns
No
Marco Penge
No
Corey Conners
No
Jason Day
No
Ben Griffin
No
Casey Jarvis
No
Brian Harman
No
Rasmus Hojgaard
No
Dustin Johnson
No
Harry Hall
No
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
No
Johnny Keefer
No
Brooks Koepka
No
Min Woo Lee
No
Hideki Matsuyama
No
Alexander Noren
No
Naoyuki Kataoka
No
Mateo Pulcini
No
Aaron Rai
No
Xander Schauffele
No
Adam Scott
No
Brandon Holtz
No
Mike Weir
No
Bubba Watson
No
Sami Valimaki
No
Rory McIlroy 100.0%
Ryan Fox 1.0%
Bubba Watson 1.0%
Akshay Bhatia <1%
$7,158 Vol.
$7,158 Vol.
Akshay Bhatia
No
Tommy Fleetwood
No
Ryan Fox
No
Tyrrell Hatton
No
Nick Taylor
No
Viktor Hovland
No
Matt McCarty
No
Zach Johnson
No
Tom McKibbin
No
Hao-Tong Li
No
Andrew Novak
No
Michael Brennan
No
Rory McIlroy
Yes
Maverick McNealy
No
Davis Riley
No
Ethan Fang
No
Pongsapak Laopakdee
No
Angel Cabrera
No
Scottie Scheffler
No
Cameron Smith
No
Jake Knapp
No
Jordan Spieth
No
Justin Thomas
No
J.J. Spaun
No
Bryson DeChambeau
No
Sung-Jae Im
No
Harris English
No
Matt Fitzpatrick
No
Daniel Berger
No
Russell Henley
No
Max Homa
No
Nicolas Echavarria
No
Sam Stevens
No
Robert MacIntyre
No
Kristoffer Reitan
No
Collin Morikawa
No
Brian Campbell
No
Justin Rose
No
Danny Willett
No
Cameron Young
No
Ludvig Aberg
No
Keegan Bradley
No
Jacob Bridgeman
No
Patrick Cantlay
No
Wyndham Clark
No
Fred Couples
No
Gary Woodland
No
Sergio Garcia
No
Kurt Kitayama
No
Max Greyserman
No
Nicolai Hojgaard
No
Aldrich Potgieter
No
Ryan Gerard
No
Michael Kim
No
Shane Lowry
No
Mason Howell
No
Jon Rahm
No
Patrick Reed
No
Jackson Herrington
No
Charl Schwartzel
No
Carlos Ortiz
No
Sepp Straka
No
Vijay Singh
No
Jose Maria Olazabal
No
Chris Gotterup
No
Si Woo Kim
No
Sam Burns
No
Marco Penge
No
Corey Conners
No
Jason Day
No
Ben Griffin
No
Casey Jarvis
No
Brian Harman
No
Rasmus Hojgaard
No
Dustin Johnson
No
Harry Hall
No
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
No
Johnny Keefer
No
Brooks Koepka
No
Min Woo Lee
No
Hideki Matsuyama
No
Alexander Noren
No
Naoyuki Kataoka
No
Mateo Pulcini
No
Aaron Rai
No
Xander Schauffele
No
Adam Scott
No
Brandon Holtz
No
Mike Weir
No
Bubba Watson
No
Sami Valimaki
No
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the player with the best round cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the Masters website (https://www.masters.com/leaderboard).
Market Opened: Apr 6, 2026, 11:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the player with the best round cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the Masters website (https://www.masters.com/leaderboard).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Defending champion Rory McIlroy's second-round 65 established the benchmark as the 2026 Masters' lowest single-round score to date, fueling trader consensus at 90.8% implied probability amid benign Augusta National conditions that produced record-low field averages. His precision iron play and hot putter on the slick bentgrass greens, combined with strong course history including last year's playoff victory, solidify his dominant position, especially after building a record six-shot 36-hole lead before Round 3 volatility. While Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Young matched 65 Saturday via elite ball-striking, no sub-65 has emerged; challengers like Justin Rose (strong Augusta affinity, steady scoring) or Scheffler (career-low Masters round) could post a superior Sunday 64 or better under firmer pins and variable winds, but traders see slim upset paths given McIlroy's momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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