Name: Reconciliation bill passed by...?
Start: 2025-04-16T20:42:41.017555Z
End: 2025-05-26T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the passage of the reconciliation bill by a specific legislative body.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by May 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. 

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President 

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

May 26

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. 

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President 

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

June 30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by July 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. 

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President 

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

July 4

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by July 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. 

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President 

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

July 3

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. 

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President 

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

July 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. 

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President 

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

August 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by July 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. 

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President 

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

July 5

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by July 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. 

The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President 

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

July 2

Reconciliation bill passed by...?

Congressional Republicans, led by President Trump, are pushing a major reconciliation bill dubbed the 'one big, beautiful bill' to extend tax cuts, though it faces criticism for favoring the wealthy and includes proposals for tax hikes on ultra-wealthy individuals and college endowments. The bill, set for a House floor vote in mid-May, is sparking debate over its economic impact amidst calls for rate cuts and concerns over rising credit card delinquencies.

Trump's Tax Bill Push

REMINDER: If Democrats have their way, the average American will see a 22% tax increase at the end of this year. 
 
We can’t let that happen. That’s why Congressional Republicans are committed to passing President Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill” to extend the Trump tax cuts and

Here’s the reality: Trump’s plainly stupid tariff policies combined with Congressional Republicans’ so-called “one big, beautiful bill” for reconciliation is a plan to play favors for the wealthy.

The billionaires among us will receive major tax cuts while working Americans, https://t.co/j3ApvZIXME

GOP lawmakers are eyeing tax increases on certain colleges' endowment revenue in President Trump's broader campaign to crack down on antisemitism. It would raise the tax rate on endowments from 1.4% to counter the Trump tax cuts in the Big Beautiful Bill.

https://t.co/8xyQUIfPPb

She should stay down there as long as it takes.

At least until Republicans pass the reconciliation bill. https://t.co/HKWC4lkt4v

We are tapped out.  We need rate cuts, and the big beautiful bill passed 

https://t.co/RJz9L1XR6b

Looks like Trump has decided to completely kill the idea of a tax increase in the reconciliation bill. https://t.co/87oe6B9Ino

TUNE IN: Marc and Sharla will have the latest on the Pope's funeral, updates on President Trump's "one big, beautiful bill," and much more on "Wake Up America" — TOMORROW at 6:30 AM ET on NEWSMAX. WATCH: https://t.co/VlT7z8dZjm https://t.co/lFeMo0iZsa

Trump House GOP ally on board with tax hike for ultrawealthy to fund 'big, beautiful bill' https://t.co/ZLEhHId9Jj

.@PunchbowlNews AM today
- News: House schedule for April &amp; May
- “Renewing the American Dream Act” - GOP reconciliation bill - set for floor week of May 19
- Rubio picks another Hill fight with State Dept. overhaul
- Life insurers launch charm offensive

https://t.co/eqVpuLplIH

Director of the National Economic Council of the U.S. Kevin Hassett tells me from the White House yesterday the House is well on track to one big beautiful bill, but “the Senate will do what that Senate does…” https://t.co/HSc7M8WIT3

Trump's House GOP ally on board with tax hike for ultra wealthy to fund 'big, beautiful bill' https://t.co/jxagylwqwM

President Donald Trump's 'big beautiful bill' is gaining traction among House Republicans, focusing on key issues like tax cuts and Medicaid reforms despite ongoing disagreements over spending cuts. The legislation, a central part of Trump's first 100 days agenda, faces challenges in reconciliation as some Republicans oppose deep Medicaid reductions, while supporters push for its passage by early July.

Bill Advances

Sen. @MarshaBlackburn (R-TN) shares an update on President @realDonaldTrump's 'big beautiful' bill, the president's investment in her state and senators working to pass a bill to protect children from A.I. on social media. https://t.co/mItpPnBd0g

Tmrw the next 30-days &amp; the Big Beautiful Bill passing by 7/4 ⁦@SundayFutures⁩ ⁦@FoxNews⁩ 10am et w ⁦@SenJohnBarrasso⁩ ⁦@EliseStefanik⁩ ⁦@charliekirk11⁩ ⁦@gen_jackkeane⁩ ⁦@Chevron⁩ ceo after ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ huge 1st 100days https://t.co/tT2d4XTqya

Every part of the reconciliation bill process so far has been:

-*Individual members show there’s no agreement at all on any of the key wedge issues*
-House/Senate holds procedural vote that doesn’t resolve any of the key issues, it passes

“ANYONE WHO OPPOSES THE EXTENSION OF THE TAX CUTS WOULD BE TECHNICALLY SUPPORTING THE GREATEST SINGLE TAX INCREASE IN AMERICAN HISTORY.” - @RogerJStoneJr joins @MikeCrispi to talk about Trump’s first 100 days and the tax cuts in the “big beautiful bill!”

@michellebackus_ https://t.co/eiKbXKTPK7

Alright I will say it out loud. Fuck all this shit with immigration, tariffs, big beautiful bill, Ukraine minerals, the pope, - the only thing that matters is the FUCKING MIDTERMS. I want to hear about every race, every day, in every state. I want to know where to send money, who

Had a chance to catch up with the @DC_Reporter on Trump’s first 100 days, DOGE, and the one big beautiful bill.

Read more from the interview with @MatthewFoldi below!
https://t.co/PbZ5OdZ2Ht https://t.co/sXK5isQ5dR

'There will be no cuts to Medcaid': Sen. Marsha Blackburn @MarshaBlackburn vows to pass President Trump's 'big beautiful' bill |  https://t.co/bM7rRiBDDx  #FoxNews #FoxNewsLive

We celebrated a big milestone this week and continued putting together President Trump’s one big, beautiful bill. 

We break it all down plus talk about some votes on the House floor in this week’s Week in Review, watch below.
https://t.co/TK489ZxhRU

"What Nevadans should watch for as Republicans unveil their 'big, beautiful' budget bill"

"In this week’s D.C. Download, a look at Medicaid cuts, IRA tax credits and no tax on tips as negotiations are just getting started."

via @birenbomb https://t.co/zDiCi5wRit

House Republicans left Washington Thursday afternoon without an agreement on Medicaid spending, which may hold up work on the budget reconciliation bill for another week.  https://t.co/TGIMIzr0ZO

The prospect of deep cuts to Medicaid benefits led to 12 House Republicans sending a letter last month telling House Speaker Johnson they would not support a final reconciliation budget bill if it reduces Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations.

https://t.co/jLoEvtBcFd

Reconciliation Bill Should Improve Medicaid, Reject Price Controls https://t.co/PHyRZkplx7

How are House Republicans working to advance President Trump's agenda during his next 100 days in office? @RepDonaldsPress joins to unpack the "big, beautiful bill" and shares when he believes the legislation will pass.
https://t.co/FKmiUHA0du

Saturday #FromWashington: Can Republicans in Congress come together on President Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill” during the next 100 days? @ByronDonalds thinks so. We discuss the process and politics. https://t.co/jRoNHXSMbS

The House of Representatives passed President Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' with a narrow 215-214 vote, featuring major tax cuts, no taxes on tips or overtime, border security funding, and significant reductions to Medicare, Medicaid, and other social programs. The legislation, hailed by supporters as historic but criticized for increasing the national debt and cutting essential services, now heads to the Senate for further deliberation.

Bill Passes House

“THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” has PASSED the House of Representatives! This is arguably the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country! The Bill includes MASSIVE Tax CUTS, No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime, Tax Deductions when

TRUMP’S "BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL" NOW INCLUDES A BIG $500 BILLION CUT TO YOUR GRANDMA'S MEDICARE. 

PASS IT ON.

There’s NO USAID funding in the One Big Beautiful Bill

Make it trend https://t.co/Wwfb8lOwwB

BREAKING: Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are popping champagne because House Republicans JUST passed Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.”

This bill is a BIG tax handout for billionaires, paid for by ripping health insurance from 14 MILLION people.

We must stop this from passing the Senate. https://t.co/JxHN0yWpMT

The One, Big, Beautiful Bill just passed the House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate!

This would not have happened without President Trump’s leadership.

The One, Big, Beautiful Bill is the most significant legislation in years:

✅Largest tax cuts in American

I’d love to stand here and tell the American people “we can cut your taxes and increase spending and everything will be fine.”

But I can’t because I’m here to deliver a dose of reality about the ticking debt bomb known as the “Big Beautiful Bill.” https://t.co/eLT5GwNj11

BREAKING: The GOP-led House just passed the Big Beautiful Bill in a 215-214 vote. It will defund Medicaid and Medicair while decreasing taxes mainly for the uber wealthy and corporations. It will also expand our deficit and increase our national debt by trillions of dollars. 

So https://t.co/nXKaDjEGZQ

🚨 #BREAKING: The House of Representatives ERUPTS in cheers and applause as President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill officially PASSES

CONGRATULATIONS, 47! 🇺🇸🔥

✅ No tax on tips or overtime
✅ $175B for deportations and the wall
✅ Tax relief for seniors
✅ Making his 2017 tax https://t.co/HtchiQqvCx

the reconciliation bill eliminates grad plus loans which allow grad students to cover the full cost of their attendance. probably will destroy law school, medical schools, and most graduate programs everywhere in the country

.@Rep_McBride claims the One Big Beautiful Bill "imposes a tax on working people" — a total lie.

The One Big Beautiful Bill CUTS taxes for working people and ELIMINATES taxes on tips and overtime.

In fact, Americans earning between $30k-$80k would see a 15% reduction in taxes. https://t.co/Le6aeY1Snp

PASSED: ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT https://t.co/AiE3w1eo2p

BREAKING:

The House just passed the reconciliation bill that includes DEFUND of Planned Parenthood.

This would strip those who commit abortions of all federal funds.

Senate—finish the job!

It's time to stop the forced taxpayer funding of groups that commit abortions. https://t.co/RDw9VpdwCA

REPORT: Republican Rep. Warren Davidson voted with all the Democrats against President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill.

Time for a primary challenge. https://t.co/aePXSKhy2y

Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" now includes a $500 billion cut to Medicare. Pass it on.

Early this morning, House Republicans passed Trump's "big, beautiful" budget bill to kick millions of Americans off Medicaid and fund tax cuts for billionaires and big corporations - but not before they snuck in even more changes that will make life harder for the most vulnerable

"'THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL' has PASSED the House of Representatives! This is arguably the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country!" –President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸 https://t.co/YcJSz0iR4d

PASSED: THE ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL ACT.

House Republicans just passed this HISTORIC piece of legislation FOR YOU. https://t.co/keVGJstR6c

The “big, beautiful” bill ain’t beautiful—it’s bullshit. 

House Republicans just voted for the largest cut to SNAP &amp; Medicaid in U.S. history—turning their backs on their own damn constituents: the working people they were sent here to represent. 

They don’t serve the people.

The bond market is sending a clear signal that the Big, Beautiful Bill may be big, but it's anything but beautiful. 10-year Treasury yields are up to 4.62% &amp; 30-year yields are up to 5.14%. Rates are going much higher, compounding the cost of financing the soaring national debt.

The Big Beautiful ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩                   Bill passed Largest mandatory spending cuts in history. Cameo by ⁦@ByronDonalds⁩ ⁦@RepDonaldsPress⁩ ⁦@VoteAPL⁩ ⁦@realannapaulina⁩ ⁦@CoryMillsFL⁩ ⁦@laurenboebert⁩ ⁦@RepBoebert⁩ https://t.co/2DUNyxDmYC

The One Big Beautiful Bill will increase wages by $6,100-$11,600 per worker, and a typical family with 2 kids will see take-home pay rise by up to $13,300.

Pro-Worker. Pro-Family. Pro-America.

Now, it's on to the U.S. Senate. 🇺🇸

🚨BREAKING: President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill has officially passed the House. 
https://t.co/lADfCMuS3w

🚨 MAJOR BREAKING: Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill has PASSED the House, CHEERS erupt on the floor. 215-214.

No tax on tips, no tax on over time, border security funding, and other major aspects of the Trump agenda. 

Well-done!

 https://t.co/kBP3qa5UPt

BREAKING: Rep. Byron Donalds says DOGE cuts will be next after President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” fully passes.

🚨FACT CHECKING🚨

There's NO USAID funding in the One Big Beautiful Bill.

The One Big Beautiful Bill passes the House. 

Congratulations, President Trump!

Big win for the American people.

🚨 RECONCILIATION BILL PASSES HOUSE: 215-214

Cuts:
-$300B from Food Stamps
-$500B from Medicare
-$800B from Medicaid
-$358B  from Affordable Care Act
- Taxes for Wealthy
- Taxes on Tips/OT/SS for 2 years

Adds:
-$20 Trillion to Debt
-$3 Trillion to Deficit

Now goes to Senate https://t.co/BXRZTwtozZ

House erupts in cheers and chants of USA! USA! as the One Big Beautiful Bill passes!

- No tax on tips and overtime
- Border security funding
- Makes Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent
- Tax relief for seniors
- Funding for a “Golden Dome” defense system

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/NCHniT1XW3

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which includes sweeping tax changes, spending cuts, and shifts to federal priorities. The bill now heads to the Senate.

Key provisions include:
• $3.8 trillion in tax cuts
• $490 billion in cuts to https://t.co/D1y4UkBTyb

Congratulations to House Republicans and President Trump on passing the One Big Beautiful Bill through the House. There’s a lot to love in this bill and perhaps the Senate can make it even better. President Trump is delivering on his historic mandate in historic fashion. Onward. https://t.co/fbWiz6Mbf0

‼️BREAKING‼️

The House passed the One Big Beautiful Bill 215-214:

❌ No USAID
✅ No Tax On Tips
✅ Trump Tax Cuts
✅ Border Security 
✅ No Tax On Overtime

House Republicans worked through the night to pass the bill before 7 a.m. &amp; kept their Memorial Day promise. 

👏 https://t.co/zhecWJjhhq

The U.S. House is approaching passing, which eliminates the federal tax credit for solar panel installations, potentially ending significant savings for homeowners. This reconciliation bill, also covering taxes, energy, and spending cuts, now moves to the Senate for further consideration and likely revisions.

Solar Tax Credit Cut

'Big beautiful bill' approved by U.S. House would eliminate tax credit for solar panel installations
https://t.co/qLV8EI9Llm

On May 22, the House narrowly passed H.R. 1—the “One Big Beautiful Act”—a reconciliation bill covering #taxes, border security, energy, spending cuts, and the #debtceiling. The Senate will consider it after Memorial Day, with major revisions likely. https://t.co/WJt1Zb3JA6

This market will resolve "Yes" if the bill listed is signed into law by the President of the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A bill will only qualify if it receives the President’s signature and becomes law through the normal legislative process. Vetoed bills, bills passed only by one chamber, or those that fail to reach the President’s desk, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Congress.gov or the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if ambiguity arises.

Will the Guidance Clarity Act of 2025 (S.81) be signed into law by December 31 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2025?

On March 11, Senator Lummis reintroduced the BITCOIN Act, which aims to purchase 1,000,000 Bitcoin. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1899447562790211883

This market will resolve to "Yes" if this act passes the Senate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.

Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Donald Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene make public statements clearly indicating a mutual reconciliation by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

Individual statements indicating reconciliation will not qualify unless reciprocated. 

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly reconcile by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Proposition 50 is a 2025 legislatively referred constitutional amendment on congressional redistricting, proposed for the statewide special election in California currently set for November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin by which Proposition 50 or any other legislatively referred statewide measure that authorizes or implements congressional redistricting is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election currently set for November 4, 2025.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the certified statewide vote share in favor (“pro”) minus the certified statewide vote share against (“contra”) the proposition.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If Proposition 50 does not receive more pro than contra votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 4, 2025 statewide ballot—including any deadline set or modified by the statute calling that special election—no qualifying legislatively referred measure has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.

The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the State of California. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.

Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the Democratic Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?tid=1764796601244) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Democratic Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Republican Party in more individual minutes than the Republican Party is ahead of the Democratic Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-democrats-flip-republicans-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Colorado.

If no 2026 Colorado Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Colorado Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will George Washington Markert be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Colorado U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits which have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes," regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Jack Reed be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Georgia.

If no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Mississippi.

If no 2026 Mississippi Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Mississippi Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Cindy Hyde-Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate from Mississippi?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Colorado.

If no 2026 Colorado Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Colorado Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Mississippi U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Mississippi.

If no 2026 Mississippi Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Mississippi Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Scott Colom be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Mississippi?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts.

If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-25-by-march-31-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 25% by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a constitutional amendment establishing term limits for members of the United States Congress is ratified by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Congressional term limits in 2025? 

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from North Carolina.

If no 2026 North Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". This market includes any potential runoff election.

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the North Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Michael Whatley be the Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama.

If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Senate.

If voting in the Colombian Senate election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine.

If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Arkansas.

If no 2026 Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Arkansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Hallie Shoffner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Arkansas?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.


Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Reconciliation bill passed by...?

May 26
$51,334 Vol.
No

June 30
$372,220 Vol.
No

July 2
$102,713 Vol.
No

July 3
$404,335 Vol.
Yes

July 4
$277,738 Vol.
Yes

July 5
$97,624 Vol.
Yes

July 31
$334,277 Vol.
Yes

August 31
$109,584 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

Reconciliation bill passed by...?

Rules

Reconciliation bill passed by...?

Market Context

Reconciliation bill passed by...?

About

Related

Reconciliation bill passed by...?

May 26$51,334 Vol.Nocircle xmark

June 30$372,220 Vol.Nocircle xmark

July 2$102,713 Vol.Nocircle xmark

July 3$404,335 Vol.Yescircle check

July 4$277,738 Vol.Yescircle check

July 5$97,624 Vol.Yescircle check

July 31$334,277 Vol.Yescircle check

August 31$109,584 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

Reconciliation bill passed by...?

Rules

Reconciliation bill passed by...?

Market Context

Reconciliation bill passed by...?

About

Related

May 26
$51,334 Vol.
No

June 30
$372,220 Vol.
No

July 2
$102,713 Vol.
No

July 3
$404,335 Vol.
Yes

July 4
$277,738 Vol.
Yes

July 5
$97,624 Vol.
Yes

July 31
$334,277 Vol.
Yes

August 31
$109,584 Vol.
Yes