Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts for substantial weekend rainfall—5 to 20 millimeters in Seoul starting late April 3—have boosted trader consensus toward higher monthly totals, with 34.5% implied probability for 75mm or more against a climatological April average of around 80-85mm. This early precipitation surge amid cherry blossom season reflects typical spring frontal activity and moisture advection from continental highs, amplified by transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions that favor average variability rather than extremes. High uncertainty across bins stems from the month's remaining three weeks, where outcomes hinge on the frequency and intensity of low-pressure systems, jet stream positioning, and potential blocking highs; lower totals like under 40mm (11%) require unusually dry anticyclonic dominance, while 75mm+ demands multiple heavy events. Watch KMA weekly updates for evolving model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPrecipitation in Seoul in April?
Precipitation in Seoul in April?
45-50mm 29.9%
55-60mm 20%
60-65mm 17%
40-45mm 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<40mm
10%
40-45mm
14%
45-50mm
17%
50-55mm
10%
55-60mm
18%
60-65mm
17%
65-70mm
18%
70-75mm
13%
75mm+
35%
45-50mm 29.9%
55-60mm 20%
60-65mm 17%
40-45mm 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<40mm
$27 Vol.
10%
40-45mm
$31 Vol.
14%
45-50mm
$85 Vol.
17%
50-55mm
$770 Vol.
10%
55-60mm
$97 Vol.
18%
60-65mm
$53 Vol.
17%
65-70mm
$140 Vol.
18%
70-75mm
$58 Vol.
13%
75mm+
$357 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts for substantial weekend rainfall—5 to 20 millimeters in Seoul starting late April 3—have boosted trader consensus toward higher monthly totals, with 34.5% implied probability for 75mm or more against a climatological April average of around 80-85mm. This early precipitation surge amid cherry blossom season reflects typical spring frontal activity and moisture advection from continental highs, amplified by transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions that favor average variability rather than extremes. High uncertainty across bins stems from the month's remaining three weeks, where outcomes hinge on the frequency and intensity of low-pressure systems, jet stream positioning, and potential blocking highs; lower totals like under 40mm (11%) require unusually dry anticyclonic dominance, while 75mm+ demands multiple heavy events. Watch KMA weekly updates for evolving model consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,619End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts for substantial weekend rainfall—5 to 20 millimeters in Seoul starting late April 3—have boosted trader consensus toward higher monthly totals, with 34.5% implied probability for 75mm or more against a climatological April average of around 80-85mm. This early precipitation surge amid cherry blossom season reflects typical spring frontal activity and moisture advection from continental highs, amplified by transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions that favor average variability rather than extremes. High uncertainty across bins stems from the month's remaining three weeks, where outcomes hinge on the frequency and intensity of low-pressure systems, jet stream positioning, and potential blocking highs; lower totals like under 40mm (11%) require unusually dry anticyclonic dominance, while 75mm+ demands multiple heavy events. Watch KMA weekly updates for evolving model consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,619End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts for substantial weekend rainfall—5 to 20 millimeters in Seoul starting late April 3—have boosted trader consensus toward higher monthly totals, with 34.5% implied probability for 75mm or more against a climatological April average of around 80-85mm. This early precipitation surge amid cherry blossom season reflects typical spring frontal activity and moisture advection from continental highs, amplified by transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions that favor average variability rather than extremes. High uncertainty across bins stems from the month's remaining three weeks, where outcomes hinge on the frequency and intensity of low-pressure systems, jet stream positioning, and potential blocking highs; lower totals like under 40mm (11%) require unusually dry anticyclonic dominance, while 75mm+ demands multiple heavy events. Watch KMA weekly updates for evolving model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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