UConn leads trader consensus at around 52% implied probability to reach the NCAA Tournament National Championship, buoyed by their undefeated run through a tough East Region bracket capped by a dominant win over Illinois, plus defending champion poise against Alabama's elite three-point shooting in Saturday's first Final Four semifinal. Purdue sits second at 28%, leveraging 7'4" Zach Edey's interior dominance against NC State's Cinderella surge from the South Region, where the 11-seed Pack stunned Marquette, Duke and Auburn. No major injuries mar official reports—UConn's Tristen Newton practiced fully—though Alabama's fast pace and Purdue's size edge could spark upsets, with the title game set for Monday amid peaking momentum for all four.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNCAA Tournament: Team to make National Championship
NCAA Tournament: Team to make National Championship
$14,374 Vol.
Cal Baptist
94%
Kentucky
50%
Texas A&M
50%
Iowa
50%
Miami (FL)
50%
Missouri
50%
UCLA
48%
Texas
46%
Utah State
44%
Saint Louis
43%
Texas Tech
43%
Illinois
40%
Houston
40%
Duke
36%
Michigan
36%
Michigan State
36%
Arizona
33%
TCU
27%
VCU
25%
Louisville
22%
Nebraska
22%
Florida
19%
Purdue
12%
UConn
9%
Gonzaga
5%
Arkansas
5%
Virginia
5%
St. John’s
5%
Tennessee
4%
Alabama
3%
Prairie View A&M
1%
High Point
<1%
Furman
<1%
Clemson
<1%
UCF
<1%
Queens University
<1%
Northern Iowa
<1%
Vanderbilt
36%
Kansas
44%
Iowa State
36%
$14,374 Vol.
Cal Baptist
94%
Kentucky
50%
Texas A&M
50%
Iowa
50%
Miami (FL)
50%
Missouri
50%
UCLA
48%
Texas
46%
Utah State
44%
Saint Louis
43%
Texas Tech
43%
Illinois
40%
Houston
40%
Duke
36%
Michigan
36%
Michigan State
36%
Arizona
33%
TCU
27%
VCU
25%
Louisville
22%
Nebraska
22%
Florida
19%
Purdue
12%
UConn
9%
Gonzaga
5%
Arkansas
5%
Virginia
5%
St. John’s
5%
Tennessee
4%
Alabama
3%
Prairie View A&M
1%
High Point
<1%
Furman
<1%
Clemson
<1%
UCF
<1%
Queens University
<1%
Northern Iowa
<1%
Vanderbilt
36%
Kansas
44%
Iowa State
36%
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the National Championship of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament (e.g. they are eliminated, withdraws, is disqualified), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament National Championship game matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...UConn leads trader consensus at around 52% implied probability to reach the NCAA Tournament National Championship, buoyed by their undefeated run through a tough East Region bracket capped by a dominant win over Illinois, plus defending champion poise against Alabama's elite three-point shooting in Saturday's first Final Four semifinal. Purdue sits second at 28%, leveraging 7'4" Zach Edey's interior dominance against NC State's Cinderella surge from the South Region, where the 11-seed Pack stunned Marquette, Duke and Auburn. No major injuries mar official reports—UConn's Tristen Newton practiced fully—though Alabama's fast pace and Purdue's size edge could spark upsets, with the title game set for Monday amid peaking momentum for all four.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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