Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA indicate May 2026 global surface temperatures are tracking within the 1.10–1.14 °C anomaly range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the multi-year warming trend and elevated ocean heat content. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of model consensus projecting limited deviation this month amid neutral-to-weak La Niña influences, following April’s 1.43 °C reading. Key resolution criteria center on official monthly averages; revised final datasets or stronger-than-expected regional cooling could shift outcomes, though historical analogs and current monitoring suggest narrow probability for such shifts before June reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 93%
1.15–1.19ºC 5.1%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$175,738 Vol.
$175,738 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
93%
1.15–1.19ºC
5%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 93%
1.15–1.19ºC 5.1%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$175,738 Vol.
$175,738 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$56,977 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$23,037 Vol.
93%
1.15–1.19ºC
$30,248 Vol.
5%
1.20–1.24ºC
$21,643 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$19,916 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$23,917 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA indicate May 2026 global surface temperatures are tracking within the 1.10–1.14 °C anomaly range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the multi-year warming trend and elevated ocean heat content. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of model consensus projecting limited deviation this month amid neutral-to-weak La Niña influences, following April’s 1.43 °C reading. Key resolution criteria center on official monthly averages; revised final datasets or stronger-than-expected regional cooling could shift outcomes, though historical analogs and current monitoring suggest narrow probability for such shifts before June reporting.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$175,738End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA indicate May 2026 global surface temperatures are tracking within the 1.10–1.14 °C anomaly range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the multi-year warming trend and elevated ocean heat content. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of model consensus projecting limited deviation this month amid neutral-to-weak La Niña influences, following April’s 1.43 °C reading. Key resolution criteria center on official monthly averages; revised final datasets or stronger-than-expected regional cooling could shift outcomes, though historical analogs and current monitoring suggest narrow probability for such shifts before June reporting.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$175,738End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA indicate May 2026 global surface temperatures are tracking within the 1.10–1.14 °C anomaly range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the multi-year warming trend and elevated ocean heat content. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of model consensus projecting limited deviation this month amid neutral-to-weak La Niña influences, following April’s 1.43 °C reading. Key resolution criteria center on official monthly averages; revised final datasets or stronger-than-expected regional cooling could shift outcomes, though historical analogs and current monitoring suggest narrow probability for such shifts before June reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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