Name: How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?
Start: 2025-02-05T22:54:38.132381Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

>$250B

$100-150B

$50-100B

$200-250B

<$50B

$150-200B

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

The DOGE team, under the direction of President Trump and Elon Musk, has uncovered over $50 billion in fraudulent annual payments at the U.S. Treasury, prompting urgent reforms for transparency in government spending. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other officials praise the methodical audit, which has already saved $74 billion in just 19 days, as a significant step toward cutting waste and increasing accountability.

DOGE Audits

To be clear, what the @DOGE team and @USTreasury have jointly agreed makes sense is the following:

- Require that all outgoing government payments have a payment categorization code, which is necessary in order to pass financial audits. This is frequently left blank, making

I’m immediately introducing legislation next week to stop these rogue judges and allow Trump and DOGE to tell you where government is spending your money.

The @DOGE team, at the direction of the President &amp; his leadership team, is making great progress improving the efficiency of how your tax dollars are spent. 

I am confident that almost any fully informed American will be happy with the results. https://t.co/TeUT0yczDH

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says @DOGE is "one of the most important audits of government" in his lifetime.

"These are highly trained professionals. This is not some roving band going around doing things. This is methodical and it is going to yield big savings." https://t.co/pBEvFEuJ8f

WATCH: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Sets the Record Straight on @DOGE 

"Elon and I are completely aligned in terms of cutting waste and increasing accountability and transparency for the American people. I believe that this DOGE program ... is one of the most important https://t.co/F3vsrhzuKW

Democrats again EXPOSED as liars. Donald Trump confirms he is directing Elon Musk and DOGE personally on where to look to cut costs

Reporter “Is there anything you've told Elon Musk he cannot touch?”

TRUMP “I'll tell him to go here, go there. He does it. He's got a very capable https://t.co/tIP0klbO3w

Some @cnn comments on @elonmusk’s @DOGE efforts. Politicians promised for years to deliver a functional audit and trim the fat; TRUMP finally did it &amp; Washington is freaked out (which makes the American people happy). https://t.co/RNDHcXg4Dm

Update…  Over $74,000,000,000.00 saved in just 19 days!  

Thank you DOGE! https://t.co/qS57Evz4iu

DOGE findings at the US Treasury

- $50 billion a year is going to people that have no known social security number or a ID on file
- The Treasury Department doesn't keep itemized records of their payouts, so there's no way to follow up and check as to where the money is going https://t.co/Ddqw35CwSi

🚨🇺🇸ELON: TREASURY ADMITS $50 BILLION/YEAR IN FRAUDULENT PAYMENTS—REFORM UNDERWAY

Elon says the U.S. Treasury and DOGE team have agreed on urgent reforms after discovering over $100B/year in entitlement payments go to individuals without SSNs or valid IDs—with $50B of that https://t.co/vUTjPaRMmq https://t.co/iCSeGTDNKD

🚨 NEW: Elon Musk says that both DOGE and the Treasury Department have agreed that moving forward all outgoing government payments must have clear written identification of what the money is being used for which was previously nearly non-existent. https://t.co/hDRRqYa4Xd

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has exposed over $382 million in fraudulent unemployment payments since 2020, primarily in California, New York, and Massachusetts, alongside $630 million in questionable SBA loans to ineligible borrowers. Additionally, DOGE terminated 102 wasteful contracts worth up to $215 million, saving approximately $100 million, and raised concerns about trillions in missing Treasury funds and discrepancies in Social Security recipient numbers.

Massive Fraud Uncovered

Elon's update on DOGE spending cuts https://t.co/G5XZIUkjMn https://t.co/hmNpMIdLVW

Contract update!

Yesterday, agencies terminated 102 wasteful contracts with a ceiling value of ~$215M and savings of ~$100M, including a $250K @USGSA contract for a “circadian lighting pilot study” and $195k in @Interior consulting contracts to “provide facilitation and https://t.co/w1zSuyLZbW

JUST IN: After discovering $382 million in fraudulent unemployment payments since 2020, DOGE identifies three blue states as the primary culprits: California, New York, and Massachusetts.

Last month, @DOGE uncovered more than $630M in SBA loans distributed to “borrowers” over the age of 115 or under the age of 11.

This week, SBA implemented a suite of new applicant verification measures  – to make sure it never happens again.

https://t.co/UzhTFSArDR

🚨 DOGE BREAKING: DOGE has uncovered more than $630 million in SBA loans distributed to “borrowers” over the age of 115 or under the age of 11.

The fraud DOGE is revealing is absolutely unreal.

 https://t.co/vya4tCOvTz

382 million dollars in unemployment insurance fraud and guess which three states are responsible according to DOGE— California, New York and Massachusetts.

🇺🇸 DOGE BREAKS THE DEM’S PIGGY BANK AND WASHINGTON SCREAMS

Turns out, USAID used cash meant for Pakistan to build a fake Twitter in Cuba.

Meanwhile, $2.7 trillion vanished into fraud, and bureaucrats acted like it’s all fine. 

DOGE’s first hearing exposed it all: 20% fraud https://t.co/k7tA57ldxQ https://t.co/3s0ynPx8xV

"DOGE found hundreds of millions of dollars in fake unemployment claims."

That statement alone should frighten you. 

https://t.co/F3l6TTkDWh

Blue states make up most of about $400 million in unemployment fraud from last 4 years: DOGE https://t.co/QjtsqehJoW

Over a month ago, Elon and DOGE discovered there was 4.7 trillion dollars "missing" from the Treasury.  The story vanished almost as fast as the money.  What is going on here?  Doesn't this seem serious?  Where are the arrests?  @AGPamBondi

🚨BREAKING: DOGE just announced their plan to bring back $TRILLIONS of dollars stolen by corrupt politicians!

Do you support seizing assets from corrupt officials?

Yes or No?

If Yes, Give me a THUMBS-UP👍! https://t.co/dbOsNzHNrv

🇺🇸 DEM STATES CAUGHT RED-HANDED IN $300M UNEMPLOYMENT FRAUD SCHEME

DOGE investigators uncovered a massive $382 million unemployment fraud operation with Democrat strongholds California, New York, and Massachusetts responsible for over 80% of the theft.

California alone handed https://t.co/ai3HWhS0h4 https://t.co/NwxPso9giU

🚨 DOGE BREAKING: Agencies canceled 102 wasteful contracts worth up to $215M, saving about $100M — including $250K for a “circadian lighting study” and $195K for facilitation consulting.

More tax dollars saved. 💸 https://t.co/zj8nc2OKI5

🚨BREAKING: DOGE has discovered that there are 394 million Social Security recipients in the U.S.  

There are only 334 million citizens in the U.S

What's your reaction? https://t.co/F0UkXkTgUI

BREAKING: DOGE has identified $382 Million in fraudulent unemployment payments since 2020, primarily in Democratic states. https://t.co/Py9W6lZ1QB

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has made significant strides in reducing federal spending by canceling over $2 billion in contracts and blocking payments, including a $52 million transfer to the World Economic Forum. Despite these efforts, criticism persists as nearly 40% of the canceled contracts are reported to yield no savings, and some celebrated cuts were quietly retracted due to errors.

Government Waste

🚨🇺🇸DOGE blocked a $52 million payment from going to the World Economic Forum. https://t.co/CyQSkCXCfh

Today,  the Federal Government exceeded $100M in annual rent savings through cancellations of 250+ vacant/underutilized leases totaling 3M+ square feet.  With ~7,250 current leases, there is plenty of available office space for the current workforce.

This is an amazing story and exactly what @DOGE aims to do!

The federal government has a MUCH larger amount of WASTE &amp; FRAUD than a local or state government could ever have, because it can always print more money. 

Unfortunately, there is no free lunch and that extra money https://t.co/f5vZtIfC7k

This audit was repeated at the Department of Labor. Initial results:

- 380 Microsoft 365 licenses with zero users
- 128 Microsoft Teams conference room licenses; only installed in 30 rooms
- 250 VSCode licenses; only using 33
- 129 Photoshop licenses; only using 22.
- 5 https://t.co/xnY8TkKOWv

DOGE has blocked a payment of $52 million to the World Economic Forum.

🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/oKFanVxAnf

US taxpayer dollars were going to be spent on the following items, all which have been cancelled: 

-$69mm for the Eurasia Foundation to do "digital transformation activity" in Europe
-$32mm to Internews for programs including "media enabling democracy, inclusion, and

AP: Nearly 40% of contracts canceled by DOGE are expected to produce no savings https://t.co/MIGwlOAZaj

DOGE has cut about $2 billion in government spending. We could have cut that plus another billion dollars if we just ended tax payer funded subsidies to oil and gas companies AND we wouldn’t have had to fire a single federal worker.

The @DOGE department/agency leaderboard shows progress within the government, so the public can see for themselves who is making the most or least progress! https://t.co/MccdPtNVBu

One of the most under-appreciated  aspects of @DOGE is the compounding impact of waste reduction. This isn’t just saving money today – these cuts are a recurring annual savings - essentially an annuity to all Americans. I.e billions saved today, will eliminate the same (or more)

NEW: @doge quietly deletes the five largest spending cuts it was celebrating last week. 

All contained errors that wildly over-inflated how much had been saved. https://t.co/Z8OH5vquBx

A lot of people doubt DOGE’s ability to cut the deficit because entitlements &amp; medicare account for the bulk of spend. But that spend isn’t as rigid as it might seem: the entire medical billing system is built on fraud. There are countless drugs and procedures that are either

We need DOGE to launch an even bigger investigation into Medicaid. Democrats went on the House floor to rage about waste being cut out of the budget.

Officials say $50 billion in payments are fraud.

We thought USAID was their biggest cash cow. It seems like it's Medicaid. https://t.co/rplsF5bSZE

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In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Dogecoin in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Dogecoin does not count as holding Dogecoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that creates a ‘DOGE dividend’ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any cash transfer, tax credit, or other comparable financial transfer which is referred to as a DOGE dividend, or which is otherwise directly funded by savings created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will qualify.  

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? 

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if DOGE or Elon Musk confirm that gold is missing from Fort Knox between March 10, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Only definitive statements which are based on audit or investigation of Fort Knox will count. 

If an audit by DOGE or Elon Musk confirms that there is no gold missing from Fort Knox, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency.

Will DOGE confirm Gold missing from Fort Knox?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for DOGEUSDT between 12 Mar '25 15:00 and 31 Dec '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the DOGEUSDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGEUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Dogecoin all time high before 2026?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". 

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of XRP in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating XRP does not count as holding XRP reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national XRP reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data  for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.


Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the first release of the "Gross domestic product: detailed economic performance results" press release for Q4 of 2025, expected to be released at the end of January 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html

If no data for the specified quarter is released by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports "on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)" to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025 be exactly 0.2%?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q3 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 30, 2025, reports a growth rate of -5% or lower. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

5% GDP contraction in Q3 2025?  

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for some time in January, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession by end of 2026?

This market will resolve according to the EU GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025" flash release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0 and 1.5%?

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for February 12, 2026, 7:00 AM.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

<$50B
$301,009 Vol.
99%
0123456789
%

$50-100B
$345,543 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

$100-150B
$265,908 Vol.
<1%

$150-200B
$293,355 Vol.
<1%

$200-250B
$413,500 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

>$250B
$657,259 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

Rules

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

Market Context

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

About

Related

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

<$50B$301,009 Vol.99%0123456789%buy Yes99.0¢buy No1.5¢

$50-100B$345,543 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.7¢

$100-150B$265,908 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.8¢

$150-200B$293,355 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.8¢

$200-250B$413,500 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.7¢

>$250B$657,259 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.7¢

Market Context

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

Rules

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

Market Context

How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025?

About

Related

<$50B
$301,009 Vol.
99%
0123456789
%

$50-100B
$345,543 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

$100-150B
$265,908 Vol.
<1%

$150-200B
$293,355 Vol.
<1%

$200-250B
$413,500 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

>$250B
$657,259 Vol.
<1%