Name: Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?
Start: 2025-12-04T00:00:51.590568Z
End: 2025-12-10T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-20-on-december-10 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-20-on-december-10-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

>20%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-40-on-december-10 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

>40%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-25-on-december-10 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

>25%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-30-on-december-10 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

>30%

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'December 31' market 'US x Venezuela military engagement by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'December 31' market 'US x Venezuela military engagement by...?', which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by-dec-31-on-friday-over-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a specific four-hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31 on Friday over 20%?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the Bank of England's Bank Rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'March 31, 2026' market 'Maduro out by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-out-in-2025?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'March 31, 2026' market 'Maduro out by...?', which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-maduro-out-by-march-31-on-friday-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a specific four-hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Odds of Maduro out by March 31 on Friday over 30%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of FedEx currently scheduled to take place on December 18, 2025 at 4:30 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will FedEx say "Guidance" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Gavin Newsom' in the "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028?tid=1764680585562) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any four-hour period ending by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-newsom-dem-pres-nominee-over-40-by-december-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.


Odds of Newsom Dem Pres Nominee over 40% by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-25-by-march-31-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 25% by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

>40%
$8,776 Vol.
No

>30%
$8,133 Vol.
No

>25%
$5,375 Vol.
No

>20%
$17,443 Vol.
No

Market Context

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Rules

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Market Context

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

About

Related

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

>40%$8,776 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>30%$8,133 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>25%$5,375 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>20%$17,443 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Rules

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Market Context

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

About

Related

>40%
$8,776 Vol.
No

>30%
$8,133 Vol.
No

>25%
$5,375 Vol.
No

>20%
$17,443 Vol.
No