Name: Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?
Start: 2024-01-09T22:35:05.316Z
End: 2024-01-15T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if no spot Bitcoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by January 15, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ETF not approved

Bulletin Board Update - 2024-01-10 1:12 PM PT:

If it is confirmed the SEC pdf approving the first bitcoin spot ETFs was legitimate, then the close price of the candle at 1:43 PM PT (1 hour after @tier10k posted approval news) will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of $BTC according to Coinbase BTC-USD is less than $40,000.00 1 hour after first Bitcoin spot ETF approval is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Coinbase BTC-USD, specifically the 1 minute candle close price one hour after the approval announcement. 

If the first Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

<40k

Bulletin Board Update - 2024-01-10 1:12 PM PT:

If it is confirmed the SEC pdf approving the first bitcoin spot ETFs was legitimate, then the close price of the candle at 1:43 PM PT (1 hour after @tier10k posted approval news) will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of $BTC according to Coinbase BTC-USD is between $40,000.00 and $42,500.00 (inclusive) 1 hour after first Bitcoin spot ETF approval is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Coinbase BTC-USD, specifically the 1 minute candle close price one hour after the approval announcement. 

If the first Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

40-42.5k

Bulletin Board Update - 2024-01-10 1:12 PM PT:

If it is confirmed the SEC pdf approving the first bitcoin spot ETFs was legitimate, then the close price of the candle at 1:43 PM PT (1 hour after @tier10k posted approval news) will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of $BTC according to Coinbase BTC-USD is between $42,500.01 and $45,000.00 (inclusive) 1 hour after first Bitcoin spot ETF approval is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Coinbase BTC-USD, specifically the 1 minute candle close price one hour after the approval announcement. 

If the first Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

42.5-45k

Bulletin Board Update - 2024-01-10 1:12 PM PT:

If it is confirmed the SEC pdf approving the first bitcoin spot ETFs was legitimate, then the close price of the candle at 1:43 PM PT (1 hour after @tier10k posted approval news) will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of $BTC according to Coinbase BTC-USD is between $45,000.01 and $47,500.00 (inclusive) 1 hour after first Bitcoin spot ETF approval is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Coinbase BTC-USD, specifically the 1 minute candle close price one hour after the approval announcement. 

If the first Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

45-47.5k

Bulletin Board Update - 2024-01-10 1:12 PM PT:

If it is confirmed the SEC pdf approving the first bitcoin spot ETFs was legitimate, then the close price of the candle at 1:43 PM PT (1 hour after @tier10k posted approval news) will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of $BTC according to Coinbase BTC-USD is between $47,500.01 and $50,000.00 (inclusive) 1 hour after first Bitcoin spot ETF approval is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Coinbase BTC-USD, specifically the 1 minute candle close price one hour after the approval announcement. 

If the first Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

47.5-50k

Bulletin Board Update - 2024-01-10 1:12 PM PT:

If it is confirmed the SEC pdf approving the first bitcoin spot ETFs was legitimate, then the close price of the candle at 1:43 PM PT (1 hour after @tier10k posted approval news) will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of $BTC according to Coinbase BTC-USD is greater than $50,000.00 1 hour after first Bitcoin spot ETF approval is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Coinbase BTC-USD, specifically the 1 minute candle close price one hour after the approval announcement. 

If the first Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

>50k

Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Pepe (https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933) ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Approval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pepe ETF in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if net Bitcoin ETF flows in 2025 are greater than $33.6B (the total net flows recorded in 2024). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

Net flows for 2025 will be calculated by subtracting the cumulative flow shown on January 1, 2025 from the cumulative flow shown on December 31, 2025.

A daily cumulative flow data point on Farside will be considered finalized once the data point for the following day is published.

The resolution source is Farside’s Bitcoin Spot ETF Total Cumulative Flow chart available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/

This market resolves solely according to the cumulative flow values displayed on Farside, not according to other ETF flow sources.

If Farside becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve using other credible and publicly verifiable sources.

Will Bitcoin ETFs attract more flows in 2025 than in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Cardano (ADA) ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Approval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cardano ETF in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?

<40k
$24,026 Vol.
No

40-42.5k
$9,342 Vol.
No

42.5-45k
$14,359 Vol.
No

45-47.5k
$12,756 Vol.
Yes

47.5-50k
$13,271 Vol.
No

>50k
$23,722 Vol.
No

ETF not approved
$27,613 Vol.
No

Market Context

Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?

Rules

Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?

Market Context

Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?

About

Related

Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?

<40k$24,026 Vol.Nocircle xmark

40-42.5k$9,342 Vol.Nocircle xmark

42.5-45k$14,359 Vol.Nocircle xmark

45-47.5k$12,756 Vol.Yescircle check

47.5-50k$13,271 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>50k$23,722 Vol.Nocircle xmark

ETF not approved$27,613 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?

Rules

Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?

Market Context

Bitcoin price 1hr after ETF approval?

About

Related

<40k
$24,026 Vol.
No

40-42.5k
$9,342 Vol.
No

42.5-45k
$14,359 Vol.
No

45-47.5k
$12,756 Vol.
Yes

47.5-50k
$13,271 Vol.
No

>50k
$23,722 Vol.
No

ETF not approved
$27,613 Vol.
No