Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability that Allbirds (BIRD) will not beat Q4 2025 quarterly earnings consensus, anchored by the company's March 31 release showing a GAAP diluted EPS of -$2.34 versus analyst estimates of -$2.24—a $0.10 miss—and revenue of $47.68 million, 15% below the $56.31 million forecast amid a 14.6% year-over-year decline. Persistent revenue contraction, driven by U.S. store closures and weak direct-to-consumer demand, alongside full-year net losses of $77.3 million on $152.5 million sales, underscores deteriorating fundamentals and competitive pressures in sustainable footwear. Recent asset sale agreements signal strategic retrenchment, bolstering near-certain pricing. Tail risks include rare resolution disputes over consensus sources or methodological adjustments, though substantial doubt on going-concern in 10-K filing reinforces downside conviction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4,702 Vol.
$4,702 Vol.
$4,702 Vol.
$4,702 Vol.
If Allbirds releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 12:32 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If Allbirds releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Resolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability that Allbirds (BIRD) will not beat Q4 2025 quarterly earnings consensus, anchored by the company's March 31 release showing a GAAP diluted EPS of -$2.34 versus analyst estimates of -$2.24—a $0.10 miss—and revenue of $47.68 million, 15% below the $56.31 million forecast amid a 14.6% year-over-year decline. Persistent revenue contraction, driven by U.S. store closures and weak direct-to-consumer demand, alongside full-year net losses of $77.3 million on $152.5 million sales, underscores deteriorating fundamentals and competitive pressures in sustainable footwear. Recent asset sale agreements signal strategic retrenchment, bolstering near-certain pricing. Tail risks include rare resolution disputes over consensus sources or methodological adjustments, though substantial doubt on going-concern in 10-K filing reinforces downside conviction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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