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Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?

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Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$5,477,608 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$5,477,608 Vol.

In Response to Trader Inquiry: This market still resolves to "Yes" if users need to pay a standard gas fee to claim the airdrop.

This is a market on whether Arbitrum (https://bridge.arbitrum.io/) will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet (any Arbitrum mainnet in this case, currently Arbitrum One and/or Arbitrum Nova), actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (either mainnet, in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.

Airdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition.

If this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.
Volume
$5,477,608
End Date
Mar 31, 2023
Created At
Feb 23, 2023, 7:00 PM ET
In Response to Trader Inquiry: This market still resolves to "Yes" if users need to pay a standard gas fee to claim the airdrop. This is a market on whether Arbitrum (https://bridge.arbitrum.io/) will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet (any Arbitrum mainnet in this case, currently Arbitrum One and/or Arbitrum Nova), actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (either mainnet, in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Airdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. If this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

In Response to Trader Inquiry: This market still resolves to "Yes" if users need to pay a standard gas fee to claim the airdrop.

This is a market on whether Arbitrum (https://bridge.arbitrum.io/) will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet (any Arbitrum mainnet in this case, currently Arbitrum One and/or Arbitrum Nova), actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (either mainnet, in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.

Airdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition.

If this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.
Volume
$5,477,608
End Date
Mar 31, 2023
Created At
Feb 23, 2023, 7:00 PM ET
In Response to Trader Inquiry: This market still resolves to "Yes" if users need to pay a standard gas fee to claim the airdrop. This is a market on whether Arbitrum (https://bridge.arbitrum.io/) will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet (any Arbitrum mainnet in this case, currently Arbitrum One and/or Arbitrum Nova), actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (either mainnet, in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Airdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. If this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?" has generated $5.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 24, 2023. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.