Trader consensus for the 2026 Miami Open winner reflects extreme uncertainty in this long-term futures market, with Sebastian Korda leading narrowly at 44.5% implied probability due to his surging hard-court form—including deep runs in recent ATP events—while Carlos Alcaraz (41.5%) stays close on pedigree as a two-time major winner with Miami finals experience. The tight cluster around 41-40.5% for Kamil Majchrzak, Raphael Collignon, Jannik Sinner, and others like Brandon Nakashima stems from volatile player trajectories: emerging challengers gaining momentum on faster courts, potential injury returns for top seeds, and rest advantages in a grueling Sunshine Double schedule. Historical upsets at Crandon Park amplify the wisdom of crowds pricing no clear dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2026 Men’s Miami Open Winner
2026 Men’s Miami Open Winner
Kamil Majchrzak 95%
Raphael Collignon 83%
Terence Atmane 81%
Brandon Nakashima 80%
$208,716 Vol.
$208,716 Vol.
Kamil Majchrzak
95%
Raphael Collignon
83%
Terence Atmane
81%
Brandon Nakashima
80%
Marin Cilic
72%
Gabriel Diallo
50%
Quentin Halys
50%
Ugo Humbert
49%
Martin Damm
49%
Arthur Cazaux
47%
Alejandro Tabilo
47%
Jiri Lehecka
46%
Marton Fucsovics
46%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
46%
Alex Michelsen
45%
Ethan Quinn
44%
Tommy Paul
43%
Corentin Moutet
43%
Sebastian Korda
43%
Carlos Alcaraz
42%
Jannik Sinner
41%
Francisco Cerundolo
41%
Frances Tiafoe
41%
Arthur Fils
38%
Cameron Norrie
34%
Karen Khachanov
32%
Valentin Vacherot
31%
Damir Dzumhur
30%
Matteo Berrettini
20%
Taylor Fritz
18%
Andrey Rublev
9%
Ben Shelton
8%
Jakub Mensik
6%
Felix Auger-Aliassime
5%
Alexander Zverev
3%
Rei Sakamoto
3%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
3%
Daniil Medvedev
1%
Learner Tien
1%
Tomas Machac
1%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1%
Zizou Bergs
<1%
Arthur Rinderknech
-
Kamil Majchrzak 95%
Raphael Collignon 83%
Terence Atmane 81%
Brandon Nakashima 80%
$208,716 Vol.
$208,716 Vol.
Kamil Majchrzak
95%
Raphael Collignon
83%
Terence Atmane
81%
Brandon Nakashima
80%
Marin Cilic
72%
Gabriel Diallo
50%
Quentin Halys
50%
Ugo Humbert
49%
Martin Damm
49%
Arthur Cazaux
47%
Alejandro Tabilo
47%
Jiri Lehecka
46%
Marton Fucsovics
46%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
46%
Alex Michelsen
45%
Ethan Quinn
44%
Tommy Paul
43%
Corentin Moutet
43%
Sebastian Korda
43%
Carlos Alcaraz
42%
Jannik Sinner
41%
Francisco Cerundolo
41%
Frances Tiafoe
41%
Arthur Fils
38%
Cameron Norrie
34%
Karen Khachanov
32%
Valentin Vacherot
31%
Damir Dzumhur
30%
Matteo Berrettini
20%
Taylor Fritz
18%
Andrey Rublev
9%
Ben Shelton
8%
Jakub Mensik
6%
Felix Auger-Aliassime
5%
Alexander Zverev
3%
Rei Sakamoto
3%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
3%
Daniil Medvedev
1%
Learner Tien
1%
Tomas Machac
1%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1%
Zizou Bergs
<1%
Arthur Rinderknech
-
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Miami Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 Miami Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 12, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Miami Open (https://www.miamiopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 10:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for the 2026 Miami Open winner reflects extreme uncertainty in this long-term futures market, with Sebastian Korda leading narrowly at 44.5% implied probability due to his surging hard-court form—including deep runs in recent ATP events—while Carlos Alcaraz (41.5%) stays close on pedigree as a two-time major winner with Miami finals experience. The tight cluster around 41-40.5% for Kamil Majchrzak, Raphael Collignon, Jannik Sinner, and others like Brandon Nakashima stems from volatile player trajectories: emerging challengers gaining momentum on faster courts, potential injury returns for top seeds, and rest advantages in a grueling Sunshine Double schedule. Historical upsets at Crandon Park amplify the wisdom of crowds pricing no clear dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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