Jannik Sinner's commanding 74% implied probability as 2026 Miami Open favorite stems from his sustained world No. 1 ranking and elite hard-court mastery, including deep Masters 1000 runs and a flawless serve-return game suited to the Crandon Park surface. Traders view rising star Arthur Fils (11.5%) as the prime challenger after his breakthrough ATP titles and upset wins over top seeds on fast courts, boosting his seeding potential. Alexander Zverev (7.6%) holds steady with consistent semifinals at Miami historically, while Jiri Lehecka's (3.6%) power baseline play gains traction post-recovery from injuries. Frances Tiafoe (2.8%) benefits from home-crowd energy as an American contender, and Francisco Cerundolo (1.8%) lingers as a dark horse despite clay preferences. No major injuries or withdrawals reported in the past week, with odds reflecting season-long projections amid stable ATP rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2026 Men’s Miami Open Winner
2026 Men’s Miami Open Winner
Jannik Sinner 74%
Arthur Fils 11.5%
Alexander Zverev 7.7%
Jiri Lehecka 3.7%
$164,076 Vol.
$164,076 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
74%
Arthur Fils
12%
Alexander Zverev
8%
Jiri Lehecka
4%
Frances Tiafoe
3%
Francisco Cerundolo
2%
Jannik Sinner 74%
Arthur Fils 11.5%
Alexander Zverev 7.7%
Jiri Lehecka 3.7%
$164,076 Vol.
$164,076 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
74%
Arthur Fils
12%
Alexander Zverev
8%
Jiri Lehecka
4%
Frances Tiafoe
3%
Francisco Cerundolo
2%
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Miami Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 Miami Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 12, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Miami Open (https://www.miamiopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 10:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Jannik Sinner's commanding 74% implied probability as 2026 Miami Open favorite stems from his sustained world No. 1 ranking and elite hard-court mastery, including deep Masters 1000 runs and a flawless serve-return game suited to the Crandon Park surface. Traders view rising star Arthur Fils (11.5%) as the prime challenger after his breakthrough ATP titles and upset wins over top seeds on fast courts, boosting his seeding potential. Alexander Zverev (7.6%) holds steady with consistent semifinals at Miami historically, while Jiri Lehecka's (3.6%) power baseline play gains traction post-recovery from injuries. Frances Tiafoe (2.8%) benefits from home-crowd energy as an American contender, and Francisco Cerundolo (1.8%) lingers as a dark horse despite clay preferences. No major injuries or withdrawals reported in the past week, with odds reflecting season-long projections amid stable ATP rankings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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