Jannik Sinner holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 Miami Open at 47% implied probability, driven by his hard court dominance—including the 2024 title win and Australian Open major—positioning him as the baseline favorite on the Sunshine Double circuit. Carlos Alcaraz trails closely at 41% after his recent Indian Wells mastery, underscoring a razor-thin gap between the world No. 1 and No. 2 amid peak form. The race stays tight with surging Americans like Tommy Paul (29.4%) and Sebastian Korda (24.6%) boosted by home-soil edge and consistent ATP Masters results, plus young breakers Arthur Fils (28%) after upsetting Sinner in Shanghai and Ethan Quinn (25.7%) via breakout college-to-pro momentum, highlighting field depth on Miami's outdoor hard courts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2026 Men’s Miami Open Winner
2026 Men’s Miami Open Winner
Jannik Sinner 46%
Carlos Alcaraz 42%
Jiri Lehecka 9.5%
Terence Atmane 7.9%
$292,153 Vol.
$292,153 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
46%
Carlos Alcaraz
42%
Jiri Lehecka
10%
Terence Atmane
8%
Quentin Halys
8%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
8%
Alexander Zverev
6%
Frances Tiafoe
6%
Daniil Medvedev
5%
Valentin Vacherot
4%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
2%
Jakub Mensik
1%
Taylor Fritz
1%
Corentin Moutet
1%
Matteo Berrettini
1%
Sebastian Korda
1%
Marin Cilic
1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1%
Alex Michelsen
1%
Karen Khachanov
<1%
Ugo Humbert
<1%
Kamil Majchrzak
<1%
Francisco Cerundolo
<1%
Raphael Collignon
<1%
Alejandro Tabilo
6%
Tommy Paul
-
Arthur Fils
-
Ethan Quinn
-
Jannik Sinner 46%
Carlos Alcaraz 42%
Jiri Lehecka 9.5%
Terence Atmane 7.9%
$292,153 Vol.
$292,153 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
46%
Carlos Alcaraz
42%
Jiri Lehecka
10%
Terence Atmane
8%
Quentin Halys
8%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
8%
Alexander Zverev
6%
Frances Tiafoe
6%
Daniil Medvedev
5%
Valentin Vacherot
4%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
2%
Jakub Mensik
1%
Taylor Fritz
1%
Corentin Moutet
1%
Matteo Berrettini
1%
Sebastian Korda
1%
Marin Cilic
1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1%
Alex Michelsen
1%
Karen Khachanov
<1%
Ugo Humbert
<1%
Kamil Majchrzak
<1%
Francisco Cerundolo
<1%
Raphael Collignon
<1%
Alejandro Tabilo
6%
Tommy Paul
-
Arthur Fils
-
Ethan Quinn
-
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Miami Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 Miami Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 12, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Miami Open (https://www.miamiopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 10:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Jannik Sinner holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 Miami Open at 47% implied probability, driven by his hard court dominance—including the 2024 title win and Australian Open major—positioning him as the baseline favorite on the Sunshine Double circuit. Carlos Alcaraz trails closely at 41% after his recent Indian Wells mastery, underscoring a razor-thin gap between the world No. 1 and No. 2 amid peak form. The race stays tight with surging Americans like Tommy Paul (29.4%) and Sebastian Korda (24.6%) boosted by home-soil edge and consistent ATP Masters results, plus young breakers Arthur Fils (28%) after upsetting Sinner in Shanghai and Ethan Quinn (25.7%) via breakout college-to-pro momentum, highlighting field depth on Miami's outdoor hard courts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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