Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by topping UEFA qualifiers, recent power rankings supremacy, and Euro 2024 momentum with stars like Yamal and Pedri peaking. France trails closely at 14.5% on squad depth led by Mbappé and consistent Nations League form, while England (11.3%) benefits from Thomas Tuchel's influence despite uneven friendlies. Argentina (8.9%) dominated CONMEBOL standings for direct qualification as defending champions, but Brazil (8.6%) slipped to fifth amid Rodrygo's March ACL injury. Late March UEFA playoffs and friendlies like Spain's 0-0 vs. Egypt finalized the 48-team field, with the December draw separating top seeds until semifinals, fostering a bunched race vulnerable to upsets in the expanded group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 15.4%
France 14.4%
England 11.3%
Argentina 8.8%
$562,662,417 Vol.
$562,662,417 Vol.
Spain
15%
France
14%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Japan
2%
Colombia
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Spain 15.4%
France 14.4%
England 11.3%
Argentina 8.8%
$562,662,417 Vol.
$562,662,417 Vol.
Spain
15%
France
14%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Japan
2%
Colombia
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Croatia
1%
Turkiye
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by topping UEFA qualifiers, recent power rankings supremacy, and Euro 2024 momentum with stars like Yamal and Pedri peaking. France trails closely at 14.5% on squad depth led by Mbappé and consistent Nations League form, while England (11.3%) benefits from Thomas Tuchel's influence despite uneven friendlies. Argentina (8.9%) dominated CONMEBOL standings for direct qualification as defending champions, but Brazil (8.6%) slipped to fifth amid Rodrygo's March ACL injury. Late March UEFA playoffs and friendlies like Spain's 0-0 vs. Egypt finalized the 48-team field, with the December draw separating top seeds until semifinals, fostering a bunched race vulnerable to upsets in the expanded group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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