Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.7% implied probability, driven by their flawless qualification campaign and sustained excellence since Euro 2024 victory, with young talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri anchoring a fluid attack. France trails closely at 13.7% on unmatched squad depth from Mbappé and midfield maestros, despite occasional cohesion lapses in qualifiers; England at 11.5% benefits from versatile forwards but faces headwinds like Phil Foden's recent injury setback. Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) lag amid Lionel Messi's advancing age and Rodrygo's absence, yet their pedigree keeps them viable. This bunched top reflects the 48-team field's parity post-March 31 playoffs—yielding surprises like Curaçao—plus two months of club form, injuries, and group stage dynamics ahead of the June 11 kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.7%
France 13.7%
England 11.5%
Argentina 9.2%
$498,367,276 Vol.
$498,367,276 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
14%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turkiye
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Spain 15.7%
France 13.7%
England 11.5%
Argentina 9.2%
$498,367,276 Vol.
$498,367,276 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
14%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turkiye
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.7% implied probability, driven by their flawless qualification campaign and sustained excellence since Euro 2024 victory, with young talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri anchoring a fluid attack. France trails closely at 13.7% on unmatched squad depth from Mbappé and midfield maestros, despite occasional cohesion lapses in qualifiers; England at 11.5% benefits from versatile forwards but faces headwinds like Phil Foden's recent injury setback. Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) lag amid Lionel Messi's advancing age and Rodrygo's absence, yet their pedigree keeps them viable. This bunched top reflects the 48-team field's parity post-March 31 playoffs—yielding surprises like Curaçao—plus two months of club form, injuries, and group stage dynamics ahead of the June 11 kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions