Recent estimates project turnout near 74% for Spain’s November 29 snap general election, exceeding the 70.4% recorded in 2023 and the long-term average near 72%, driven by a larger census of 38.73 million voters and heightened stakes in a polarized contest where PP and Vox hold a clear polling lead. Trader consensus places the highest probability on the 66-68% bracket, with several nearby ranges closely matched, reflecting uncertainty over late mobilization by left-leaning voters, the impact of the abbreviated campaign that begins November 13, and historical variability in snap elections. Key upcoming factors that could shift probabilities include final-week turnout drives, weather on election day, and any last-minute shifts in perceived competitiveness.