Name: Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual
Start: 2025-12-19T22:57:06.016962Z
End: 2026-02-11T00:00:00Z

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This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number that the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by in January 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for January 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on February 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data. 

≤0,1%

0,2%

0,3%

0,4%

≥0,5%

Inflación mensual en EE. UU.

Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual

This is a market on predicting the monthly inflation rate for January.

January Inflation - Monthly

This is a market on predictions regarding inflation rates for November.

November Inflation

This is a market on the inflation rate for December, measuring the monthly increase in consumer prices.

December Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in February 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for February 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on March 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

February Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in March 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

March Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in April 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

April Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in May 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

May Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in June 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 15, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

June Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in July 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

July Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in August 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

August Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in September 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 15, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

September Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in October 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

October Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in November 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for November 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on December 18, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according the figures of the most recent previous month with available data. 

Inflación de noviembre - Mensual

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in December 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according the figures of the most recent previous month with available data. 

Inflación de diciembre en EE.UU. - Mensual

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number that the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in February 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for February 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on March 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data. 

February Inflation US - Monthly

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

¿La inflación superará el 3% en 2026?

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.

The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

¿Será el crecimiento anual del PIB de China (interanual) en 2026 de entre 4.0% y 5.0%?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.

The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html

¿Será la inflación anual de la Eurozona en 2026 entre 1,9% y 2,1%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

¿Retrasará la BLS otro informe del IPC antes de 2027?

This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.

If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to issue a press release for its in March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment, including a decision on the SNB Policy Rate, on March 19, 2026 (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule).

This market will resolve according to the change in the upper bound of the SNB Policy Rate as a result of the decision of this assessment versus the level it was prior to the SNB March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Swiss National Bank released after its March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment (https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Swiss National Banks's press release for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no SNB policy rate decision is issued by the end date of their next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

¿Sin cambios en la tasa de política del Banco Nacional Suizo después de la reunión de marzo?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the first release of the "Gross domestic product: detailed economic performance results" press release for Q4 of 2025, expected to be released at the end of January 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html

If no data for the specified quarter is released by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports "on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)" to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

¿Será exactamente del 0,4% el crecimiento del PIB de Alemania en el cuarto trimestre de 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. 

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

¿Llegará el desempleo en EE. UU. al menos al 5,0% en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Subida de tasas del BCE en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for February 12, 2026, 7:00 AM.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

¿Será el crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el cuarto trimestre de 2025 entre 1.0% y 1.5%?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Subida de tasas de la Fed en 2026?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2025?

This market will resolve according to the Eurozone GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025" flash release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

¿Será el crecimiento del PIB de la zona euro en el cuarto trimestre de 2025 entre 1,0 y 1,5%?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Recorte de tasas del BCE en 2026?

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for release on January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el cuarto trimestre de 2025 será entre 1.0% y 1.5%?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)

¿Habrá recesión en Canadá antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil's unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is below 6.3% when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#desemprego) public release of the Q4 2025 figure unemployment, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure. 

Because this market's resolution source reports quarterly unemployment to one decimal point (e.g. 4.5%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.


¿El desempleo en Brasil estará por debajo del 6,3% para el cuarto trimestre de 2025?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Será 2026 el cuarto año más cálido registrado?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual

≤0,1%
$17,346 Vol.
28%

0,2%
$14,696 Vol.
33%

0,3%
$13,394 Vol.
32%

0,4%
$13,150 Vol.
8%

≥0,5%
$9,125 Vol.
2%

Contexto del Mercado

Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual

Reglas

Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual

Contexto del Mercado

Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual

Acerca de

Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual

≤0,1%$17,346 Vol.28%Comprar Sí29¢Comprar No74¢

0,2%$14,696 Vol.33%Comprar Sí34¢Comprar No68¢

0,3%$13,394 Vol.32%Comprar Sí32¢Comprar No69¢

0,4%$13,150 Vol.8%Comprar Sí9¢Comprar No93¢

≥0,5%$9,125 Vol.2%Comprar Sí1.6¢Comprar No98.6¢

Contexto del Mercado

Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual

Reglas

Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual

Contexto del Mercado

Inflación de enero EE. UU. - Mensual

Acerca de

≤0,1%
$17,346 Vol.
28%

0,2%
$14,696 Vol.
33%

0,3%
$13,394 Vol.
32%

0,4%
$13,150 Vol.
8%

≥0,5%
$9,125 Vol.
2%