Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Milan's highest temperature on April 3, with 19°C holding a slim 21% implied probability amid tightly clustered outcomes around 17–22°C, driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing spreads of 3–5°C. Recent mild late-March weather—highs near 22°C on March 30 under persistent high pressure over northern Italy—has nudged sentiment warmer than the early April climatological average of 16–18°C at Milano Malpensa Airport, but potential intrusions of cooler Atlantic air or increased cloud cover could cap peaks lower. Key differentiators include steering winds and ridging strength; watch ECMWF 12Z update March 31 for refined guidance on intensification potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on April 3?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 3?
19°C 22%
20°C 21%
21°C 20%
22°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
12%
16°C
15%
17°C
17%
18°C
17%
19°C
22%
20°C
21%
21°C
20%
22°C
19%
23°C or higher
18%
19°C 22%
20°C 21%
21°C 20%
22°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
13°C or below
$132 Vol.
1%
14°C
$135 Vol.
1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
12%
16°C
$0 Vol.
15%
17°C
$0 Vol.
17%
18°C
$0 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Milan's highest temperature on April 3, with 19°C holding a slim 21% implied probability amid tightly clustered outcomes around 17–22°C, driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing spreads of 3–5°C. Recent mild late-March weather—highs near 22°C on March 30 under persistent high pressure over northern Italy—has nudged sentiment warmer than the early April climatological average of 16–18°C at Milano Malpensa Airport, but potential intrusions of cooler Atlantic air or increased cloud cover could cap peaks lower. Key differentiators include steering winds and ridging strength; watch ECMWF 12Z update March 31 for refined guidance on intensification potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volumen
$268Fecha de finalización
Apr 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Milan's highest temperature on April 3, with 19°C holding a slim 21% implied probability amid tightly clustered outcomes around 17–22°C, driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing spreads of 3–5°C. Recent mild late-March weather—highs near 22°C on March 30 under persistent high pressure over northern Italy—has nudged sentiment warmer than the early April climatological average of 16–18°C at Milano Malpensa Airport, but potential intrusions of cooler Atlantic air or increased cloud cover could cap peaks lower. Key differentiators include steering winds and ridging strength; watch ECMWF 12Z update March 31 for refined guidance on intensification potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$268Fecha de finalización
Apr 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Milan's highest temperature on April 3, with 19°C holding a slim 21% implied probability amid tightly clustered outcomes around 17–22°C, driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing spreads of 3–5°C. Recent mild late-March weather—highs near 22°C on March 30 under persistent high pressure over northern Italy—has nudged sentiment warmer than the early April climatological average of 16–18°C at Milano Malpensa Airport, but potential intrusions of cooler Atlantic air or increased cloud cover could cap peaks lower. Key differentiators include steering winds and ridging strength; watch ECMWF 12Z update March 31 for refined guidance on intensification potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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