President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's presidential term extends to May 2028 under Turkey's current constitution, with the next election scheduled no later than then, driving trader consensus to an 89.5% implied probability against his removal, resignation, or other exit by December 31, 2026. His active role in recent diplomacy, including an April address at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum urging global solutions and May comments on advancing PKK peace talks, underscores leadership continuity amid a declared "year of reform" for 2026. Unsubstantiated February health rumors—dismissed by the presidency—have not materialized into verified issues, while opposition calls for snap elections lack procedural momentum in the presidential system. Major shifts would require catalysts like a health crisis, constitutional amendment, or parliamentary trigger for early polls.