**Erdoğan remains firmly in office through the end of 2026, with the next scheduled presidential election set for May 2028.** Recent statements from senior officials, including chief adviser Mehmet Uçum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek in mid-September 2026, confirm plans to hold the vote in April 2028 and position the incumbent for another term under a constitutional exception triggered by a parliamentary early-election decision. The ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds 326 of 600 seats, and no snap election or removal mechanism has gained traction despite opposition calls. Erdoğan continues active diplomacy, including UN engagements, with no reported developments suggesting resignation, disqualification, or loss of parliamentary support before 2027. Traders assign only a 4.5% chance to an exit by year-end due to these institutional and political realities, though low-probability catalysts such as a sudden health event, major scandal, or unexpected coalition fracture could still shift the timeline.