Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29, 2026 Governing Council meeting (74.9%), with a notable 24.8% implied probability of an increase amid recent Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% in March—up from 1.9% in February—driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady on March 19, lifting its 2026 HICP inflation projection to 2.6% from prior estimates, while President Lagarde and officials like Nagel, Villeroy, and Muller signaled potential hikes if pressures persist, though uncertainty over inflation durability and softening economic sentiment keeps cuts off the table at under 0.2% and anchors the hold as the baseline scenario.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTipos de interés del BCE: abril de 2026
Tipos de interés del BCE: abril de 2026
Sin cambios 74.8%
Aumento 24.8%
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
$287,531 Vol.
$287,531 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambios
75%
Aumento
25%
Sin cambios 74.8%
Aumento 24.8%
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
$287,531 Vol.
$287,531 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos
$54,564 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$57,135 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambios
$81,076 Vol.
75%
Aumento
$94,756 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29, 2026 Governing Council meeting (74.9%), with a notable 24.8% implied probability of an increase amid recent Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% in March—up from 1.9% in February—driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady on March 19, lifting its 2026 HICP inflation projection to 2.6% from prior estimates, while President Lagarde and officials like Nagel, Villeroy, and Muller signaled potential hikes if pressures persist, though uncertainty over inflation durability and softening economic sentiment keeps cuts off the table at under 0.2% and anchors the hold as the baseline scenario.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volumen
$287,531Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29, 2026 Governing Council meeting (74.9%), with a notable 24.8% implied probability of an increase amid recent Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% in March—up from 1.9% in February—driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady on March 19, lifting its 2026 HICP inflation projection to 2.6% from prior estimates, while President Lagarde and officials like Nagel, Villeroy, and Muller signaled potential hikes if pressures persist, though uncertainty over inflation durability and softening economic sentiment keeps cuts off the table at under 0.2% and anchors the hold as the baseline scenario.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$287,531Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29, 2026 Governing Council meeting (74.9%), with a notable 24.8% implied probability of an increase amid recent Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% in March—up from 1.9% in February—driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. The ECB held rates steady on March 19, lifting its 2026 HICP inflation projection to 2.6% from prior estimates, while President Lagarde and officials like Nagel, Villeroy, and Muller signaled potential hikes if pressures persist, though uncertainty over inflation durability and softening economic sentiment keeps cuts off the table at under 0.2% and anchors the hold as the baseline scenario.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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