Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) June 2026 settlement above $84, driven primarily by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the ongoing Iran conflict that began in March, propelling spot WTI to four-year highs near $100/bbl last week. June futures trade around $89/bbl amid a backwardated curve reflecting tight near-term supply risks, despite bearish U.S. EIA data showing a 3.1 million barrel inventory build for the week ended April 3. OPEC+ signaled a modest 206,000 bpd output hike on April 5 but paused larger increases, balancing disruption fears against global oversupply projections. Key catalysts include next week's EIA report and potential Hormuz resolution developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿En qué se asentará el petróleo crudo (CL) en junio?
¿En qué se asentará el petróleo crudo (CL) en junio?
>$84 65%
$77-$84 16%
$70-$77 9.0%
$63-$70 5.6%
$123,433 Vol.
$123,433 Vol.
< $42
2%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
6%
$70-$77
9%
$77-$84
16%
>$84
65%
>$84 65%
$77-$84 16%
$70-$77 9.0%
$63-$70 5.6%
$123,433 Vol.
$123,433 Vol.
< $42
2%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
6%
$70-$77
9%
$77-$84
16%
>$84
65%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado abierto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) June 2026 settlement above $84, driven primarily by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the ongoing Iran conflict that began in March, propelling spot WTI to four-year highs near $100/bbl last week. June futures trade around $89/bbl amid a backwardated curve reflecting tight near-term supply risks, despite bearish U.S. EIA data showing a 3.1 million barrel inventory build for the week ended April 3. OPEC+ signaled a modest 206,000 bpd output hike on April 5 but paused larger increases, balancing disruption fears against global oversupply projections. Key catalysts include next week's EIA report and potential Hormuz resolution developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes